- update-config: Use this skill to configure the Claude Code harness via settings.json. Automated behaviors ("from now on when X", "each time X", "whenever X", "before/after X") require hooks configured in settings.json - the harness executes these, not Claude, so memory/preferences cannot fulfill them. Also use for: permissions ("allow X", "add permission", "move permission to"), env vars ("set X=Y"), hook troubleshooting, or any changes to settings.json/settings.local.json files. Examples: "allow npm commands", "add bq permission to global settings", "move permission to user settings", "set DEBUG=true", "when claude stops show X". For simple settings like theme/model, suggest the /config command.
- keybindings-help: Use when the user wants to customize keyboard shortcuts, rebind keys, add chord bindings, or modify ~/.claude/keybindings.json. Examples: "rebind ctrl+s", "add a chord shortcut", "change the submit key", "customize keybindings".
- simplify: Review changed code for reuse, quality, and efficiency, then fix any issues found.
- fewer-permission-prompts: Scan your transcripts for common read-only Bash and MCP tool calls, then add a prioritized allowlist to project .claude/settings.json to reduce permission prompts.
- loop: Run a prompt or slash command on a recurring interval (e.g. /loop 5m /foo, defaults to 10m) - When the user wants to set up a recurring task, poll for status, or run something repeatedly on an interval (e.g. "check the deploy every 5 minutes", "keep running /babysit-prs"). Do NOT invoke for one-off tasks.
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- claude-api: Build, debug, and optimize Claude API / Anthropic SDK apps. Apps built with this skill should include prompt caching. Also handles migrating existing Claude API code between Claude model versions (4.5 → 4.6, 4.6 → 4.7, retired-model replacements).
TRIGGER when: code imports `anthropic`/`@anthropic-ai/sdk`; user asks for the Claude API, Anthropic SDK, or Managed Agents; user adds/modifies/tunes a Claude feature (caching, thinking, compaction, tool use, batch, files, citations, memory) or model (Opus/Sonnet/Haiku) in a file; questions about prompt caching / cache hit rate in an Anthropic SDK project.
SKIP: file imports `openai`/other-provider SDK, filename like `*-openai.py`/`*-generic.py`, provider-neutral code, general programming/ML.
- agent-browser: Browse the web for any task — research topics, read articles, interact with web apps, fill forms, take screenshots, extract data, and test web pages. Use whenever a browser wou…
- frontend-engineer: Pro frontend engineering discipline. Enforces build-test-verify workflow for every web project. Never declare done until the site is built, tested, responsive, accessible, and …
- whatsapp-formatting: Format messages for WhatsApp, including mentions that render as real WhatsApp tags. Use when responding in a WhatsApp conversation (platform_id / chatJid ends with @s.whatsapp.…
- vercel-cli: Deploy apps to Vercel. Use when asked to deploy, ship, or publish a web application, or manage Vercel projects, domains, and environment variables.
- slack-formatting: Format messages for Slack using mrkdwn syntax. Use when responding to Slack channels (folder starts with "slack_" or JID contains slack identifiers).
- welcome: Introduce yourself to a newly connected channel. Triggered automatically when a channel is first wired. Send a friendly greeting and brief overview of what you can do.
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- backlog-burndown: Triage a project's observations.md backlog and burn down the bounded, testable items by delegating their fixes to the LOCAL model (free), keeping only judgment/architecture wor…
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- init: Initialize a new CLAUDE.md file with codebase documentation
- review: Review a pull request
- security-review: Complete a security review of the pending changes on the current branch


High tier (52.2% burnable), 5h at 100% (just reset), eligible projects: StageHand (P1) and nanoclaw (P1).

Let me write the running lock first, then assess.

nanoclaw: The card now says "Run `pnpm test` + restart service + add `CLAUDE_PLANNING_MODEL=opus` to `.env`; then `git push origin main`" — this is blocked on James (he needs to run the commands on Mac Studio). BUT wait — James said the local work IS on Mac Studio. And he approved the push. But the proxy was down when I tried to push.

Actually wait — the container IS running on Mac Studio (as James confirmed).

The repo is already sitting at `/workspace/extra/projects/nanoclaw` on the Mac Studio filesystem, so the push to GitHub just depends on whether the OneCLI proxy is back online. The next action requires James to run those commands on his Mac Studio, not me.

I'm realizing that `pnpm test` might not work from the container since the test suite was split in Phase 0.6 into host and container tests, and the host tests specifically need Node 22 via Homebrew. Let me check what the container test suite actually looks like now.


Bash

echo '{"started_at":"2026-07-28T00:30:00.000Z"}' > /workspace/agent/autopilot-running-lock.json && echo "lock written"

Write autopilot running lock


lock written


Reset autopilot after quota window reset


Conversation compacted


This session is being continued from a previous conversation that ran out of context. The summary below covers the earlier portion of the conversation.

Summary:
1. Primary Request and Intent:

**Completed this session:**
- Finished nanoclaw Phase 2 quota ledger commit (519ec56): `quota-ledger.ts`, `quota-ledger.test.ts`, `gemini-openai-claude.ts` — all bookkeeping done
- Multiple autopilot cycles processed (3:00 AM, 3:30 AM ×2, 11:00 AM CT) — all all-blocked; skip-locks written
- Daily portfolio brief sent to telegram-mg-17796 (slack-daily-brief destination unavailable)
- Weekly calibration report sent to telegram-mg-17796
- Processed James's brief replies:
  - Nanoclaw push approved; attempted push failed (OneCLI proxy down); nanoclaw metric confirmed as "decision questions answered per week, target 3"
  - Congressional-trading: sent ELI10 explanation; James replied "2:yes" → implemented 11.5/LOW/edge≥2 config change (8a2f73e)
- Updated all project cards and BOARD.md for both nanoclaw and congressional-trading

**Current task (7:30 PM CT cycle, in progress):**
- `<task from="telegram-mg-17796" time="Jul 27, 2026, 7:30 PM">` high tier (52.2% burnable); eligible: StageHand (P1), nanoclaw (P1); next_reset_at: 2026-08-01T20:59:59.499Z; 5h at 100% (just reset), 7d at 63%
- Running lock written (`{"started_at":"2026-07-28T00:30:00.000Z"}`)
- Task interrupted for summary request before work assessment was complete

2. Key Technical Concepts:

- **nanoclaw Phase 2 quota ledger**: `quota-ledger.ts` — per-rung JSON state machine at `{PROVIDER_HISTORY_DIR}/quota-ledger.json`; `isExhausted()` auto-expires entries; `markExhausted()` 30-min backoff; `markRevived()` no-op if already ok; `isQuotaError()` detects rate_limit/429/credit balance/RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED
- **nanoclaw provider routing**: 7 commits queued ahead of `origin/main` (d4ef752→519ec56). Code is already on Mac Studio filesystem (confirmed by James). Push blocked by OneCLI proxy being down.
- **OneCLI proxy**: HTTP/HTTPS proxy at `host.docker.internal:10255` that injects GitHub credentials. Was down (connection refused) when push was attempted.
- **congressional-trading config change (8a2f73e)**: Adopted backtest-optimal threshold — `SCORE_NOTIFY_THRESHOLD` 9.0→11.5, `NOTIFY_MIN_CONVICTION` "HIGH"→"LOW", `NOTIFY_MIN_EDGE_FACTORS` 3→2. Committed on `feat/agentic-alert-loop` branch.
- **nanoclaw metric**: Confirmed by James: "decision questions answered per week, target 3"
- **Autopilot running lock**: `autopilot-running-lock.json` written at cycle start, removed at end
- **Autopilot skip-lock**: `autopilot-skip-lock.json` — suppresses 30-min trigger; written during consecutive all-blocked cycles
- **5h/7d quota windows**: 5h at 100% (just reset), 7d at 63% — constraining window is 7d, next_reset_at 2026-08-01T20:59:59.499Z

3. Files and Code Sections:

- **`/workspace/extra/projects/nanoclaw/container/agent-runner/src/providers/quota-ledger.ts`** (NEW, committed 519ec56)
  - Full quota ledger state machine; loadLedger/saveLedger backed by JSON file; isExhausted() auto-prunes; markRevived() is a no-op if already ok

- **`/workspace/extra/projects/nanoclaw/container/agent-runner/src/providers/quota-ledger.test.ts`** (NEW, committed 519ec56)
  - 12 tests: state machine transitions (tests 1–6), isQuotaError detection patterns (tests 7–12)
  - Uses `PROVIDER_HISTORY_DIR` env var pointing to temp dir

- **`/workspace/extra/projects/nanoclaw/container/agent-runner/src/providers/gemini-openai-claude.ts`** (modified, committed 519ec56)
  - Added import: `import { isExhausted, isQuotaError, markExhausted, markRevived } from './quota-ledger.js'`
  - Pre-filters exhausted rungs: `const activeRungs = rungs.filter((r) => r.isClaude || !isExhausted(r.name))`
  - On success: `if (!rung.isClaude) markRevived(rung.name)`
  - On error: `if (!rung.isClaude && isQuotaError(errMsg)) { markExhausted(rung.name, errMsg); log(...) }`

- **`/workspace/extra/projects/congressional-trading/config.py`** (modified, committed 8a2f73e)
  ```python
  SCORE_NOTIFY_THRESHOLD = 11.5    # was 9.0; backtest-derived 2026-07-27
  NOTIFY_MIN_CONVICTION = "LOW"    # was "HIGH"; HIGH conviction was negatively predictive
  NOTIFY_MIN_EDGE_FACTORS = 2      # was 3; per backtest 2026-07-27
  ```

- **`/workspace/extra/projects/congressional-trading/tests/test_notification_policy.py`** (modified, committed 8a2f73e)
  - `test_allows_explicit_high_signal_buy`: score changed 11.0→12.0 (above new 11.5 threshold); assertion changed `assertGreaterEqual(len(...), 3)` → `assertGreaterEqual(len(...), 2)`

- **`/workspace/extra/second-brain/portfolio/projects/nanoclaw.md`** (updated)
  - Metric: "Decision questions answered per week (target: 3) — confirmed 2026-07-27"
  - Blocked on James: "Studio restart (code already on Mac Studio)"
  - Next action: "Run `pnpm test` + restart nanoclaw service + add `CLAUDE_PLANNING_MODEL=opus` to `.env`; then `git push origin main` for GitHub backup"
  - Dated note added: "2026-07-27 — James confirmed: (1) ok to push 7 queued commits to GitHub; (2) metric = 'decision questions answered per week, target 3'..."

- **`/workspace/extra/second-brain/portfolio/projects/congressional-trading.md`** (updated)
  - Goal updated: score ≥ 11.5 (was ≥ 9)
  - Next action: "Monitor shadow precision at new 11.5/LOW/edge≥2 config; weekly monitor running (Mondays 9am CDT); await James go/no-go on live notifications"
  - Dated note: "2026-07-27 — James approved adopting backtest-optimal config. Committed 8a2f73e..."
  - Last activity: 2026-07-27

- **`/workspace/extra/second-brain/portfolio/BOARD.md`** (updated)
  - nanoclaw row: next action updated, "deploy, metric" → "Studio restart"
  - congressional-trading row: next action updated, last activity 2026-07-21→2026-07-27
  - Decision queue: nanoclaw metric item removed (answered)

- **`/workspace/agent/autopilot-run-log.jsonl`** (appended)
  - 4 all-blocked entries (3:00 AM, 3:30 AM medium, 3:30 AM high, 11:00 AM CT)
  - Congressional-trading config change not yet logged

- **`/workspace/agent/autopilot-running-lock.json`** (currently written)
  - `{"started_at":"2026-07-28T00:30:00.000Z"}` — STILL PRESENT, must be removed at end of 7:30 PM cycle

- **`/workspace/agent/autopilot-skip-lock.json`** (written)
  - Last value: `{"skip_lock_until":"2026-07-27T19:30:00.000Z",...}` — this has now expired (7:30 PM CT = 00:30 UTC Jul 28)

4. Errors and Fixes:

- **nanoclaw git push failed**: `fatal: unable to access ... Failed to connect to host.docker.internal port 10255` — OneCLI proxy (which injects GitHub credentials) was down. Workaround: informed James the code is already on Mac Studio, he can push manually. No fix applied.
- **pytest not available**: Proxy down, pip couldn't install. Test correctness verified manually by tracing through the logic: score 12.0 > new threshold 11.5, conviction HIGH satisfies min LOW, 4 edge factors from fixture > min 2. All 6 tests expected to pass.
- **`slack-daily-brief` destination unavailable**: Sent daily brief to `telegram-mg-17796` instead.
- **git identity not set in congressional-trading container**: Fixed with `git config user.email "nano@nanoclaw.dev"` and `git config user.name "Nano"` before commit.

5. Problem Solving:

- **All-blocked autopilot cycles**: Multiple consecutive cycles where both P1 projects (nanoclaw: deploy, StageHand: 5 unanswered questions) were blocked. Applied skip-lock pattern to suppress 30-min trigger; scheduled reset-wakes at quota reset times. After 5 consecutive all-blocked cycles sent a comprehensive unblock summary to James.
- **Nanoclaw deploy path**: James clarified the container runs on Mac Studio, so the local repo IS on Mac Studio. Push to GitHub is for backup only; the actual deploy is James running `pnpm test` + restart. Running lock was the one thing preventing smooth cycle wrap-up.
- **Congressional-trading threshold**: ELI10 explanation of the backtest findings led James to approve the config change. Implemented and committed autonomously.

6. All User Messages:

- `<message id="4212" from="telegram-mg-17796" sender="James Lopez" time="Jul 27, 2026, 8:28 AM">1. Ok to nanoclaw push to git, note this local work is on the Mac Studio you're running on, so no need to pull 2. Unclear on what decision is needed for congressional-trading, can you ELI10 that for me?  3 decision questions answered / week works for now</message>`
- `<message id="4228" from="telegram-mg-17796" sender="James Lopez" time="Jul 27, 2026, 9:04 AM">2:yes</message>`
- `CRITICAL: Respond with TEXT ONLY. Do NOT call any tools.` [current summary request]

7. Pending Tasks:

- **7:30 PM CT autopilot cycle** (in progress — running lock held): Assess nanoclaw and StageHand, determine if actionable work exists, complete cycle bookkeeping, schedule reset-wake for 2026-08-01T20:59:59.499Z, remove running lock
- **nanoclaw deploy**: James needs to run `pnpm test` + restart + add `CLAUDE_PLANNING_MODEL=opus` to `.env` on Mac Studio; retry `git push origin main` from container when OneCLI proxy recovers (or James pushes manually)
- **congressional-trading live notifications**: James needs to make go/no-go decision on turning live notifications on (shadow mode continues at new config)
- **StageHand 5 toolchain questions**: Still unanswered — resent Jul 27; awaiting James
- **RoadSense 5 launch questions**: Unanswered since Jul 8

8. Current Work:

The 7:30 PM CT high-tier autopilot cycle (52.2% burnable, 5h at 100%) was in progress. Running lock was just written (`{"started_at":"2026-07-28T00:30:00.000Z"}`). The next step was to read the BOARD.md and project cards for StageHand and nanoclaw to determine if any actionable work exists, or if this is another all-blocked cycle.

Key facts relevant to the assessment:
- **nanoclaw (P1)**: 7 commits queued. James confirmed code is already on Mac Studio. Next action requires James to run `pnpm test` + restart. OneCLI proxy was down earlier — could retry the `git push origin main` now.
- **StageHand (P1)**: Blocked on 5 unanswered toolchain questions. No autonomous work possible.
- Both P1 projects were blocked in all morning cycles. With 5h at 100%, there's quota available, but projects are still the same.

9. Optional Next Step:

Continue the 7:30 PM autopilot cycle. Check if OneCLI proxy has recovered and retry `git push origin main` for nanoclaw (approved by James). If push succeeds, update the nanoclaw card noting push completed. If still all-blocked, log the cycle, schedule the reset-wake for `2026-08-01T20:59:59.499Z`, remove the running lock, and report to `slack-infrastructure`.

The cycle was interrupted immediately after writing the running lock:
> `echo '{"started_at":"2026-07-28T00:30:00.000Z"}' > /workspace/agent/autopilot-running-lock.json && echo "lock written"`

The task prompt specifies: eligible projects are StageHand (P1) and nanoclaw (P1), `next_reset_at: 2026-08-01T20:59:59.499Z`.

---

You MUST wrap all responses in <message to="name">...</message> blocks.
Available destinations: `cli-local`, `cw-coder`, `ingest-into-wiki`, `slack-agenticlever-website`, `slack-infrastructure`, `slack-mg-17835`, `slack-mg-17835-2`, `slack-mg-17835-3`, `slack-mg-17835-4`, `slack-mg-17835-5`, `slack-mg-17835-6`, `slack-qip-qien`, `slack-roadsense`, `slack-stagehand`, `slack-tradingbot25`, `telegram-mg-17796`, `telegram-mg-17800`.

If you need specific details from before compaction (like exact code snippets, error messages, or content you generated), read the full transcript at: /home/node/.claude/projects/-workspace-agent/281d2e96-ca9e-44dc-bf42-409fa842646d.jsonl
Continue the conversation from where it left off without asking the user any further questions. Resume directly — do not acknowledge the summary, do not recap what was happening, do not preface with "I'll continue" or similar. Pick up the last task as if the break never happened.


# Portfolio Board

One row per active project. Cards with full detail live in `projects/`.
Operating model + decisions: [PLAN.md](PLAN.md).
Stages: `research → discovery → spec → build → test → feedback → maintain`.
Guard: `review-required` (James approves merges) or `autonomous-ok` (agents proceed, report after).

**Seeded 2026-07-06 from git activity — stages and next actions are drafts until James confirms.**

| Project | Stage | Guard | Next action | Blocked on James | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| [portfolio-autopilot](projects/portfolio-autopilot.md) | build | autonomous-ok | Monitor headroom log; calibration surfaces reserve suggestions after 5+ snapshots | none | 2026-07-24 |
| [qip-qien](projects/qip-qien.md) | feedback | review-required | SEV-1 fix shipped (ee84254 pushed 2026-07-25); confirm trial health | none | 2026-07-25 |
| [congressional-trading](projects/congressional-trading.md) | test | autonomous-ok | Monitor shadow precision at new 11.5/LOW/edge≥2 config; await go/no-go on live notifications | live-notify go/no-go | 2026-07-27 |
| [FindRefurbishedAppleProduct](projects/FindRefurbishedAppleProduct.md) | discovery | autonomous-ok | Confirm goal — brand new repo | confirm card | 2026-07-06 |
| [TradingBot25](projects/TradingBot25.md) | build | review-required | Confirm goal + current strategy state | confirm card | 2026-06-26 |
| [AgenticLever](projects/AgenticLever.md) | build | autonomous-ok | Confirm goal + next feature direction | confirm goal | 2026-07-20 |
| [pool-monitor](projects/pool-monitor.md) | maintain | autonomous-ok | None — steady state? confirm | confirm card | 2026-06-17 |
| [StageHand](projects/StageHand.md) | discovery | autonomous-ok | Await James answers on 5 toolchain questions; headless-browser gallery capture if Local Recs green-lit | voice, agent, posting, pricing, Local Recs y/n | 2026-07-21 |
| [MentorCore](projects/MentorCore.md) | research | autonomous-ok | Parked — no bandwidth | none | 2026-06-11 |
| [RoadSense](projects/RoadSense.md) | spec | autonomous-ok | Answer 5 launch questions → unblock implementation | auth model, city, GIS license, creator posture, metric | 2026-07-21 |
| [nanoclaw](projects/nanoclaw.md) | build | autonomous-ok | Run `pnpm test` + restart service + add `CLAUDE_PLANNING_MODEL=opus` to .env; then `git push origin main` | Studio restart | 2026-07-27 |
| [projects-monorepo-infra](projects/projects-monorepo-infra.md) | build | review-required | Name the token-spend-avoided metric | metric decision | 2026-07-16 |
| cortex *(no card yet)* | maintain | review-required | Decide: fill Reddit OAuth creds, or drop Reddit ingest (project's own docs call the API "increasingly restrictive") | Reddit creds / keep-or-drop call | 2026-07-12 |
| CodexBar *(no card yet)* | maintain | review-required | Decide upstream-sync strategy (1056 commits behind steipete/CodexBar); scrub steipete paths/bundle-ID from docs | sync strategy | 2026-07-12 |
| CodexBarLocal *(no card yet)* | maintain | review-required | 34 uncommitted changes incl. a stray Xcode scaffold — commit, stash, or discard | commit/stash/discard call | 2026-07-12 |
| CodexBar-ESP32 *(no card yet)* | maintain | autonomous-ok | None right now — mDNS doc gap fixed today; 3 minor observations items open (untested pace-formula dup, lock-ordering) | none | 2026-07-12 |
| localsky_radar *(no card yet)* | build | review-required | `git init` + first commit (2,227 lines, zero version control); rewrite CLAUDE.md (wrongly claims unimplemented) | confirm git-init | 2026-07-12 |

## Decision queue

Questions for James, appended by Nano; answered items move to the card's Notes and are removed here.

- **RoadSense launch questions (5):** auth model, generalization city, GIS license, creator posture, 30-day success metric. Sent via Telegram 2026-07-08.
- **nanoclaw push() fix deploy (2026-07-20):** Fix implemented (d4ef752), 135 tests pass. Awaiting Studio deploy. Design decisions made autonomously: (1) follow-up-turn UX = yes; (2) Claude safety net = yes; (3) tests = yes.

## Recently shipped

- **nanoclaw** 2026-07-27 — Phase 2 quota ledger committed (519ec56): per-rung JSON ledger with silent skip of exhausted REST rungs, 30-min backoff, `isQuotaError()` heuristic, auto-expiry, 12 new tests. Awaiting Studio deploy.
- **nanoclaw** 2026-07-27 — Phase 1.5 per-class model selection committed (8648c70): `CLAUDE_PLANNING_MODEL` env var routes planning tasks (autopilot cycles) to opus; base model (sonnet) used for tool-work and chat. `resolveClaudeModel()` exported + 4 unit tests (26–29). To activate: add `CLAUDE_PLANNING_MODEL=opus` to `.env` on Studio after deploy.
- **nanoclaw** 2026-07-27 — Phase 1 classifyTask committed (3aa7f25): `needsClaudeCode(): boolean` replaced with `classifyTask(): TaskClass` ('planning' | 'tool-work' | 'chat'); autopilot/portfolio `<task>` messages now classified as 'planning'; 3 new direct unit tests (23–25). TypeScript clean; awaiting Studio deploy.
- **nanoclaw** 2026-07-26 — Phase 0.6+1 committed (5f98659): Codex-first default provider, task/file/autopilot classifier fixes, 4 RED→GREEN tests; bundled pending Phase 0.6 routing + test-split changes. Awaiting Studio deploy.
- **qip-qien** 2026-07-25 — SEV-1 auth fix pushed to GitHub (ee84254): admin routes now use `requireAdminApiUser` on 4 endpoints; approved by James, pushed by Nano.
- **nanoclaw** 2026-07-26 — SqliteError delivery bug fixed (349ed2e): `writeOutboundDirect` now uses read-write opener; poll loops isolate per-session errors. TypeScript clean; awaiting Studio deploy + tests.
- **nanoclaw** 2026-07-25 — false-positive ceiling kills on Agent sub-agent runs fixed (0ac74eb): `decideStuckAction()` exempts non-Bash tools from the 30-min heartbeat ceiling when `tool_started_at < NON_BASH_TOOL_CEILING_MS` (90 min). Two new tests.
- **Portfolio audit** 2026-07-12 — parallel survey across 20 projects; auto-fixed 10 AGENTS.md/CLAUDE.md symmetry gaps, an mDNS doc gap (CodexBar-ESP32), a stale phase claim (MentorCore), a wrong-hostname ntfy-link bug (pool-monitor, verified via 76 passing tests), a test-isolation gap (AgenticLever, verified via 32 passing tests), and this file's own Tailscale hostname drift.
- **nanoclaw** 2026-07-08 — fix(router): mention-sticky Slack session scoping committed


# congressional-trading

- Repo: `~/projects/congressional-trading` · https://github.com/jamesjlopez/congressional-trading
- Goal: Score congressional trade disclosures (0–13 scale) and push high-conviction buy signals via ntfy when score ≥ 11.5 + quality gates pass. In shadow/measurement mode — scoring and logging signals but not pushing live notifications yet.
- Stage: test
- Guard: autonomous-ok
- Metric: Signal precision (% of signals that are wins at 30/60d) over shadow period — threshold TBD by James
- Blocked on James: define exit criteria — what win-rate and sample size graduates it to live?
- Next action: Monitor shadow precision at new 11.5/LOW/edge≥2 config; weekly monitor running (Mondays 9am CDT); await James go/no-go on live notifications

## Notes
- 2026-07-06 — Seeded from git activity: "Keep shadow measurement active during..." (same-day commit). Runs on always-on machine.
- 2026-07-06 — Explored codebase: scoring algorithm is 0–13 scale with 8 components (committee, cluster, size, small-cap bonus, options bonus, sell pressure, strategic LLM score, disruption LLM score). Notification threshold = 9.0 after timeliness multiplier. Max 1 notification/run. 14k+ historical trades stored. `signal_outcomes` table tracks 30/60d returns. Key open issue: win-rate uses current price snapshot, not fixed-horizon (backlog item). Forward-looking predictor module also exists.
- 2026-07-06 — James approved agentic calibration approach: backtest first → data-derived thresholds → ongoing automated monitoring. Scoped as 3 phases below.

### Calibration task — 3 phases

**Phase 1: Fix win-rate calculation** ✅ DONE 2026-07-12
- Added `compute_fixed_horizon()` to `tools/win_rate.py`: uses `price_history` table (price at tx_date+30d vs tx_date) — stable classification, not today's rolling price
- `compute()` dispatches to fixed-horizon when `price_history` is populated; rolling fallback for fresh installs
- 8 TDD tests added to `tests/test_win_rate.py`, all GREEN
- Committed: `feat/agentic-alert-loop` — "fix(win_rate): use fixed-horizon returns instead of rolling price snapshot"

**Phase 2: Backtest sweep script** ✅ DONE 2026-07-12
- `scripts/backtest_sweep.py` added. Sweeps score threshold (7–13), conviction (LOW/MEDIUM/HIGH), edge-factor min (2/3/4).
- Quick mode: reads signal_outcomes (n=36, no price_history needed). Full mode: replays 7k+ trades from price_history.
- Quick mode ran: signals scored 10.8–14.5. Threshold 12.5+ improves precision 58%→67% and cuts max drawdown from -40.7% to -7.7%.
- **Price_history backfill needed for full sweep** (python scripts/backtest_sweep.py --backfill --csv results.csv) — yfinance not installed in container.
- Committed: `feat/agentic-alert-loop` — "feat(backtest): add threshold/conviction/edge sweep script"

**Phase 3: Backfill + full sweep** ✅ DONE 2026-07-12
- Batched yfinance backfill: 960k price rows across 1,378 tickers in 39s
- Ran full replay sweep: 6,493 trades, 15 months, 117 config combinations
- CSV saved to `data/backtest_sweep_2026-07-12.csv`
- **Key finding**: Current config (HIGH conviction, thresh=9.0, edge≥3) = 44% precision, -0.96% median excess vs SPY
- **Best config**: threshold=11.5, LOW conviction, edge≥2 → 54% precision, +0.67% median excess, 398 signals/year
- **Surprising**: HIGH conviction = WORSE performance. Unresearched signals at high base scores outperform LLM-tagged HIGH conviction ones — suggesting base score is more predictive than LLM overlay.
- Results sent to James via Slack 2026-07-12. Waiting for threshold decision to implement config changes.

**Phase 4: Ongoing automated outcome monitoring** ✅ DONE 2026-07-19
- `/workspace/agent/congressional-monitor.py` — stdlib-only script querying `signal_outcomes`, computing 30d excess precision (last-10 / last-20 / all-time), outputting `{"wakeAgent": bool, "data": {...}}` for Nano task trigger
- Alert threshold: 40% floor (`BREAKER_MIN_WIN_RATE`); sends ntfy push to `congressWatchSignals` topic on breach
- Current precision: 58.3% all-time / 65.0% last-20 / 60.0% last-10 (all well above floor)
- Scheduled weekly: task-1784500441752-hqopzy, Mondays 9am CDT (`0 9 * * 1`)
- 2026-07-25 — Dual-poller decision (James): Mac Studio is authoritative for `com.congresswatch.daily`. Stop Mini launchd job when SSH available. Until then, possible doubled LLM spend + notification race — acceptable.
- 2026-07-21 — Autopilot cycle (high tier): closed stale observation — `outcome_tracker.py` horizon-return drift bug was already fixed in `0288530` (2026-07-06); observation had been logged Open on 2026-07-15 after the fix. Added regression test `test_horizon_fetcher_anchors_at_notified_date_not_today` to prevent regression. 28/28 tests pass. Committed f2846af on feat/agentic-alert-loop.
- 2026-07-27 — James approved adopting backtest-optimal config. Committed 8a2f73e on feat/agentic-alert-loop: SCORE_NOTIFY_THRESHOLD 9.0→11.5, NOTIFY_MIN_CONVICTION HIGH→LOW, NOTIFY_MIN_EDGE_FACTORS 3→2. Backtest finding: HIGH conviction tag was negatively predictive; base score alone is the better signal. New config: 54% precision, +0.67% median alpha vs SPY (vs 44% / -0.96% prior). Test updated to pass score 12.0 and assert ≥2 edge factors.


from __future__ import annotations

from datetime import datetime, timedelta
import os
import sqlite3
import tempfile
import unittest

from analysis.notification_policy import (
    edge_factors,
    evaluate_notification_candidate,
    is_buy_recommendation,
    recent_ticker_notification,
)

def _signal(**overrides):
    sig = {
        "ticker": "EDGE",
        "member_count": 2,
        "max_tier": 4,
        "has_options": False,
        "committee_score": 3.0,
        "small_cap_score": 0.0,
        "sell_pressure_score": 0.0,
        "strategic_score": 3.0,
        "disruption_score": 1.0,
    }
    sig.update(overrides)
    return sig

def _research(**overrides):
    research = {
        "conviction": "HIGH",
        "recommended_action": "BUY NOW - catalyst remains timely",
        "risk_factors": "Valuation and execution risk.",
        "strategic_score": 3,
        "disruption_score": 1,
        "checklist": {"passed": True},
        "verifier_verdict": "CONCUR",
    }
    research.update(overrides)
    return research

class NotificationPolicyTest(unittest.TestCase):
    def test_allows_explicit_high_signal_buy(self):
        decision = evaluate_notification_candidate(_signal(), _research(), 12.0)

        self.assertTrue(decision.allowed)
        self.assertGreaterEqual(len(decision.edge_factors), 2)
        self.assertIn("multi-member cluster", decision.edge_factors)
        self.assertIn("direct committee alignment", decision.edge_factors)

    def test_rejects_monitor_or_not_buy_text(self):
        self.assertFalse(is_buy_recommendation("MONITOR - do not buy until earnings"))
        self.assertFalse(is_buy_recommendation("Do not buy despite the catalyst"))

        decision = evaluate_notification_candidate(
            _signal(),
            _research(recommended_action="MONITOR - wait before buying"),
            11.0,
        )

        self.assertFalse(decision.allowed)
        self.assertIn("not an explicit buy", decision.reason)

    def test_rejects_high_score_without_enough_edge_factors(self):
        sig = _signal(
            member_count=1,
            max_tier=2,
            has_options=False,
            committee_score=1.0,
            small_cap_score=0.0,
            strategic_score=1.0,
            disruption_score=1.0,
        )
        research = _research(strategic_score=1, disruption_score=1)

        decision = evaluate_notification_candidate(sig, research, 12.0)

        self.assertFalse(decision.allowed)
        self.assertIn("edge factors", decision.reason)
        self.assertEqual(edge_factors(sig, research), ())

    def test_rejects_meaningful_sell_pressure(self):
        decision = evaluate_notification_candidate(
            _signal(sell_pressure_score=-1.5),
            _research(),
            12.0,
        )

        self.assertFalse(decision.allowed)
        self.assertIn("sell pressure", decision.reason)

    def test_rejects_priced_in_signal_even_if_score_still_clears(self):
        decision = evaluate_notification_candidate(_signal(runup_pct=20), _research(), 20)
        self.assertFalse(decision.allowed)
        self.assertIn("priced_in", decision.reason)

    def test_recent_ticker_notification_uses_rolling_cooldown(self):
        now = datetime(2026, 6, 5, 12, 0, 0)
        with tempfile.TemporaryDirectory() as tmp:
            db_path = os.path.join(tmp, "signals.db")
            conn = sqlite3.connect(db_path)
            conn.execute(
                """
                CREATE TABLE signal_outcomes (
                    ticker TEXT NOT NULL,
                    notified_at TEXT NOT NULL
                )
                """
            )
            conn.execute(
                "INSERT INTO signal_outcomes (ticker, notified_at) VALUES (?, ?)",
                ("AMD", (now - timedelta(days=3)).isoformat(timespec="seconds")),
            )
            conn.commit()
            conn.close()

            in_cooldown, latest, days_left = recent_ticker_notification(
                "AMD",
                db_path=db_path,
                cooldown_days=14,
                now=now,
            )
            stale, _, stale_days_left = recent_ticker_notification(
                "MSI",
                db_path=db_path,
                cooldown_days=14,
                now=now,
            )

        self.assertTrue(in_cooldown)
        self.assertEqual(latest, now - timedelta(days=3))
        self.assertEqual(days_left, 11)
        self.assertFalse(stale)
        self.assertEqual(stale_days_left, 0)

if __name__ == "__main__":
    unittest.main()


import os
from dotenv import load_dotenv
load_dotenv()

def _env_float(name: str, default: float) -> float:
    return float(os.getenv(name, default))

def _env_int(name: str, default: int) -> int:
    return int(os.getenv(name, default))

# --- Database ---
DB_PATH = os.path.join(os.path.dirname(__file__), "data", "congress_trades.db")

# --- Ingest ---
LOOKBACK_DAYS = 30          # how many days of trade history to fetch on each run
PAGE_SIZE = 100             # max records per page from Capitol Trades

# --- Scoring ---
SCORE_RESEARCH_THRESHOLD = 5.0   # min score to trigger LLM research
SCORE_NOTIFY_THRESHOLD = 11.5    # min score to send ntfy notification (backtest-derived 2026-07-27, was 9.0)
DEFAULT_SCORE_WEIGHTS = {
    "committee": 1.0, "track_record": 1.0, "cluster": 1.0,
    "options": 1.0, "size": 1.0, "small_cap": 1.0,
    "sell_pressure": 1.0, "strategic": 1.0, "disruption": 1.0,
}
BACKTEST_MIN_ALERTS_PER_MONTH = _env_float("BACKTEST_MIN_ALERTS_PER_MONTH", 2.0)

# --- Timeliness multipliers applied to score at notify-decision time only ---
# A "late" signal's stored score is unchanged; the multiplier only gates notifications.
TIMELINESS_MULTIPLIERS = {"fresh": 1.0, "watch": 0.85, "late": 0.70}
FRESHNESS_MAX_HOURS = _env_int("FRESHNESS_MAX_HOURS", 48)
WATCH_MAX_DAYS = _env_int("WATCH_MAX_DAYS", 7)
PRICED_IN_RUNUP_PCT = _env_float("PRICED_IN_RUNUP_PCT", 15.0)
MIN_AVG_DOLLAR_VOLUME = _env_float("MIN_AVG_DOLLAR_VOLUME", 2_000_000)
EARNINGS_BLACKOUT_DAYS = _env_int("EARNINGS_BLACKOUT_DAYS", 2)
RESEARCH_MIN_CITATIONS = _env_int("RESEARCH_MIN_CITATIONS", 2)
REQUIRE_VERIFIER_CONCUR = os.getenv("REQUIRE_VERIFIER_CONCUR", "true").lower() in ("1", "true", "yes")
TUNER_MIN_NEW_OUTCOMES = _env_int("TUNER_MIN_NEW_OUTCOMES", 8)
TUNER_MAX_STEP_PCT = _env_float("TUNER_MAX_STEP_PCT", 10.0)
BREAKER_MIN_WIN_RATE = _env_float("BREAKER_MIN_WIN_RATE", 0.40)
TUNER_MIN_IMPROVEMENT_PCT = _env_float("TUNER_MIN_IMPROVEMENT_PCT", 2.0)

# --- Win rate ---
WIN_RATE_MIN_TRADES = 3          # minimum buy trades with price data before using actual rate

# --- Deep Research ---
# All signals above SCORE_NOTIFY_THRESHOLD are eligible for deep research.
# Each run processes up to TOP_N of them, prioritising never-researched tickers
# then stalest-first, skipping any researched within DECAY_DAYS.
# The decay window (not TOP_N) is the primary cost control.
DEEP_RESEARCH_TOP_N = 10            # max deep-research calls per run
DEEP_RESEARCH_DECAY_DAYS = 7        # days before re-researching the same ticker

# --- Notification quality gates ---
# Cap how many push alerts fire per pipeline run regardless of score.
# Push should be reserved for the single best actionable idea; the report carries the rest.
MAX_NOTIFICATIONS_PER_RUN = 1

# Do not re-alert the same ticker during this rolling window unless --force is used.
NOTIFY_TICKER_COOLDOWN_DAYS = 14

# When True, only signals where deep research recommends "BUY NOW" or "BUY" get notified.
# Set False to notify for MONITOR/AVOID signals too (not recommended — defeats the purpose).
NOTIFY_REQUIRE_BUY_ACTION = True

# Minimum conviction level to trigger notification. Options: "LOW", "MEDIUM", "HIGH"
# Backtest finding 2026-07-27: HIGH conviction (LLM-tagged) was WORSE than LOW — base score
# is more predictive than the LLM overlay. Lowered from HIGH → LOW.
NOTIFY_MIN_CONVICTION = "LOW"

# Minimum number of independent edge factors before a signal can page you.
# Factors include multi-member clusters, large disclosed size, options timing,
# committee alignment, small/mid-cap scarcity, and strong LLM catalyst scores.
# Lowered from 3 → 2 per backtest 2026-07-27 (best config: 11.5/LOW/edge≥2).
NOTIFY_MIN_EDGE_FACTORS = 2

# Suppress buy notifications when sellers materially offset buyers.
NOTIFY_MAX_SELL_PRESSURE_PENALTY = -1.0

# --- LLM ---
LLM_PROVIDER = "anthropic"          # "anthropic" or "google"
ANTHROPIC_API_KEY = os.getenv("ANTHROPIC_API_KEY", "")
GOOGLE_API_KEY = os.getenv("GOOGLE_API_KEY", "")

# --- Predictive Signals ---
# Behavioral analysis: predict future trades before disclosure.
# Requires CONGRESS_GOV_API_KEY for live bill data (free at api.congress.gov);
# works in degraded mode (LLM-only) without it.
CONGRESS_GOV_API_KEY = os.getenv("CONGRESS_GOV_API_KEY", "")
PREDICTOR_MAX_MEMBERS = 5          # members to analyze per run (cost control)
PREDICTOR_DECAY_DAYS  = 7          # skip re-predicting same member within this window
PREDICTOR_MIN_TRADES  = 5          # min historical trades before a member is analyzed
PREDICTOR_LEGISLATION_DAYS = 45   # how far back to look for recently active bills

# --- ntfy ---
NTFY_BASE_URL = "https://ntfy.sh"
NTFY_TOPIC_SIGNALS = "congressWatchSignals"        # trade signal notifications
NTFY_TOPIC_STATUS = "claudeCodeWaitingOnYou"       # system status / needs-input alerts


# nanoclaw

- Repo: `~/projects/nanoclaw` · https://github.com/jamesjlopez/nanoclaw
- Goal: the agent platform itself — powers this whole operating model
- Stage: build
- Guard: autonomous-ok
- Metric: Decision questions answered per week (target: 3) — confirmed 2026-07-27
- Blocked on James: Studio restart (code already on Mac Studio)
- Next action: Run `pnpm test` + restart nanoclaw service + add `CLAUDE_PLANNING_MODEL=opus` to `.env`; then `git push origin main` for GitHub backup

## Notes
- 2026-07-06 — Migrated Mini → Studio (see nanoclaw memory: machine-migration-gotchas). Daily brief + portfolio board went live today.
- 2026-07-06 — Reddit ingestion merged 2026-06-13 but non-functional: unauthenticated `.json` API is 403-blocked. **Dropped** 2026-07-07 — Reddit now requires manual approval for new OAuth apps (scraping crackdown). James doesn't find Reddit content high-signal enough to pursue. Dead feature, no further action.
- 2026-07-08 — Autopilot cycle (medium tier): built `/workspace/agent/autopilot-summary.mjs` — outcome tracker for autopilot run log. Reads autopilot-run-log.jsonl, prints stats by outcome/project/tier/model + recent run history. Supports `--json` and `--last N` flags.
- 2026-07-08 — Autopilot cycle (minimal tier): built `/workspace/agent/autopilot-calibrate.mjs` — weekly calibration script. Computes 7-day stats (runs, success rate, active projects), flags stalled autopilot or low success rate. Scheduled weekly Mondays 08:00 CT (task-1783485079941-19i8vt).
- 2026-07-08 — Autopilot cycle (high tier): added skip-lock mechanism to `autopilot-trigger.mjs` — checks `autopilot-skip-lock.json` before waking; agent writes lock after all-blocked cycles to suppress repeated 30-min trigger fires. Eliminated ~6 wasted cycles per blocked period. Also queued nanoclaw metric proposal in Decision queue.
- 2026-07-08 — Autopilot cycle (medium tier): committed fix(router) — mention-sticky session scoping now respects wiring's `session_mode`. Previously Slack shared-mode wirings were coerced to per-thread, causing bot to go silent after initial @mention. RED→GREEN regression test added.
- 2026-07-08 — Autopilot cycle (medium tier): committed fix(provider) — hallucinated tool-call tag detection on REST rungs. Adds retry + honestNoToolsReply fallback. Both commits pushed to GitHub (846ce6b..b724c2a). Awaiting Mini deploy (SSH unavailable from container).
- 2026-07-19 — Autopilot cycle (high tier): designed push() queuing fix for REST rungs. Root cause: push() delegates to activeClaudeQuery?.push() which is null for LM Studio/Codex, silently dropping follow-up messages. Fix: restPendingQueue in query() closure; push() enqueues when Claude not active; eventsFor() drains queue as sequential follow-up turns after REST completion. Plan + red-team sent to James via #infrastructure. 3 design questions pending answers.
- 2026-07-20 — Autopilot cycle (high tier): implemented push() fix autonomously (d4ef752). Design decisions: (1) follow-up-turn UX = yes, better than silent drop; (2) Claude rung also drains as safety net = yes; (3) tests = yes, 3 RED→GREEN. 135/135 tests pass. Awaiting Studio deploy.
- 2026-07-20 — Autopilot cycle (high tier): fixed skip-lock bypass bug. Root cause: tasks pre-queued before skip-lock was written would still fire. Fix: added running-lock (`autopilot-running-lock.json`) written at turn-start, checked by trigger (< 45 min = agent still running → wakeAgent: false). Eliminates the race window. Also added running-lock protocol to CLAUDE.local.md for permanent adherence.
- 2026-07-20 — Autopilot cycle (high tier): applied calibration recommendation — raised `reserve_5h_pct` from 25% to 30% in autopilot-config.json. Weekly calibration data showed 5h headroom averaging 0% remaining after runs (floor=25% was insufficient).
- 2026-07-25 — Autopilot cycle (high tier): fixed false-positive ceiling kills on Agent sub-agent runs (0ac74eb). `decideStuckAction()` in `host-sweep.ts` now exempts non-Bash tools (e.g. `Agent`) from the ceiling kill when `tool_started_at < NON_BASH_TOOL_CEILING_MS` (90 min); heartbeat staleness during sub-agent execution is expected, not a fault. `NON_BASH_TOOL_CEILING_MS` exported; two new tests added (ok + kill-ceiling paths). Tests must run on Mac Studio (`pnpm test`). Closed open observation.
- 2026-07-27 — Autopilot cycle (high tier): Phase 1.5 per-class model selection committed (8648c70). `CLAUDE_PLANNING_MODEL` env var (default: `opus`) routes planning tasks to a more capable model; tool-work and chat keep the base model (sonnet). `resolveClaudeModel(taskClass, baseModel, planningModel)` exported for unit testing; 4 new tests (26–29). ClaudeProvider instantiated per-query only when model changes (common path reuses default instance). After deploy: add `CLAUDE_PLANNING_MODEL=opus` to `.env` on Mac Studio.
- 2026-07-27 — Autopilot cycle (high tier): Phase 1 classifyTask committed (3aa7f25). `needsClaudeCode(): boolean` replaced with exported `classifyTask(): TaskClass` ('planning' | 'tool-work' | 'chat'). Autopilot/portfolio `<task>` messages now classified as 'planning' (same rung order as tool-work; distinction reserved for per-class model/effort in Phase 1.5). 3 new unit tests (23–25). TypeScript clean; awaiting Studio deploy.
- 2026-07-26 — Autopilot cycle (high tier): Phase 0.6 + Phase 1 classifier committed (5f98659). Phase 0.6: Codex-first default provider, Codex→Claude→LM Studio tool-work order, split pnpm test into host/container suites. Phase 1 classifier: `<task>` messages always route tools-first; file operations match "read the file" / "edit this file"; added autopilot/portfolio/brief keywords. 4 RED→GREEN tests. TypeScript clean; tests need Mac Studio. Bundled with closed observations (349ed2e SqliteError, 0ac74eb ceiling kills).
- 2026-07-26 — Autopilot cycle (high tier): fixed SqliteError delivery bug (349ed2e). Root cause: `writeOutboundDirect` opened outbound.db with readonly opener then tried INSERT — always threw "attempt to write a readonly database". Fixed: use `openOutboundDbRw`. Also isolated per-session errors in `pollActive`/`pollSweep` so one bad session doesn't block delivery for all others. TypeScript clean. Tests must run on Mac Studio (Node 22). Closed open observation. `decideStuckAction()` now bypasses the 30-min ceiling kill when a non-Bash tool is in flight and `tool_started_at < NON_BASH_TOOL_CEILING_MS` (90 min) — heartbeat staleness during Agent execution is expected. Two new tests cover both paths. Tests must run on Mac Studio (`pnpm test` with Node 22). Closed open observation.
- 2026-07-27 — James confirmed: (1) ok to push 7 queued commits to GitHub; (2) metric = "decision questions answered per week, target 3". Code is already on Mac Studio; deploy = run `pnpm test` + restart + add `CLAUDE_PLANNING_MODEL=opus` to `.env`. OneCLI proxy down at time of push attempt — push manually or retry when proxy recovers.
- 2026-07-27 — Autopilot cycle (high tier): Phase 2 quota ledger committed (519ec56). Per-rung state machine backed by `{PROVIDER_HISTORY_DIR}/quota-ledger.json`. Exhausted REST rungs are silently skipped (pre-filtered before rung loop); `isQuotaError()` distinguishes quota failures from connectivity errors; auto-expire on `exhaustedUntil` with ledger pruning; `markRevived()` no-op if rung already ok. 12 new tests (quota-ledger.test.ts). TypeScript clean; awaiting Studio deploy.


<system>Your response was not delivered — it was not wrapped in <message to="name">...</message> blocks. All output must be wrapped: use <message to="name"> for content to send, or <internal> for scratchpad. Your destinations: cli-local, cw-coder, ingest-into-wiki, slack-agenticlever-website, slack-infrastructure, slack-mg-17835, slack-mg-17835-2, slack-mg-17835-3, slack-mg-17835-4, slack-mg-17835-5, slack-mg-17835-6, slack-qip-qien, slack-roadsense, slack-stagehand, slack-tradingbot25, telegram-mg-17796, telegram-mg-17800. Please re-send your response with the correct wrapping.</system>


Let me continue the 7:30 PM CT autopilot cycle. The running lock is already written. I need to:

1. Check if the OneCLI proxy has recovered and try to push nanoclaw to GitHub
2. Assess StageHand status
3. Log the cycle and clean up

Let me start by checking the proxy and attempting the git push for nanoclaw.


ToolSearch

Question: select:SendMessage


Question: select:SendMessage


Prompt: <system>Your response was not delivered — it was not wrapped in <message to="name">...</message> blocks. All output must be wrapped: use <message to="name"> for content to send, or <internal> for scratchpad. Your destinations: cli-local, cw-coder, ingest-into-wiki, slack-agenticlever-website, slack-infrastructure, slack-mg-17835, slack-mg-17835-2, slack-mg-17835-3, slack-mg-17835-4, slack-mg-17835-5, slack-mg-17835-6, slack-qip-qien, slack-roadsense, slack-stagehand, slack-tradingbot25, telegram-mg-17796, telegram-mg-17800. Please re-send your response with the correct wrapping.</system>


Let me continue the autopilot cycle. I need to:
1. Try the git push for nanoclaw (check if OneCLI proxy recovered)
2. Assess StageHand
3. Log the cycle
4. Remove running lock

Let me start by attempting the git push.


Bash

cd /workspace/extra/projects/nanoclaw && git push origin main 2>&1 | head -20

Retry git push origin main for nanoclaw


fatal: unable to access 'https://github.com/jamesjlopez/nanoclaw.git/': Failed to connect to host.docker.internal port 10255 after 2 ms: Couldn't connect to server


Still down. Let me check the StageHand status and log the cycle as all-blocked. This is another all-blocked cycle.

Let me check if there's any work I can do on nanoclaw that doesn't require pushing, or any StageHand work that doesn't require James's answers.

StageHand: blocked on 5 toolchain questions - no autonomous work
nanoclaw: blocked on Studio restart - but I can't push anyway, and the code is already on Studio

Let me think about what other projects might be actionable now:
- congressional-trading: just committed the config change, now in shadow monitoring mode — autonomous-ok.

The weekly monitor runs Mondays, so I'm checking what else might be available. portfolio-autopilot and AgenticLever are both in build stage and autonomous-ok, but the task specifies only StageHand and nanoclaw as eligible P1 projects. Since both are blocked, I need to complete this cycle cleanly even without progress.

I'm wondering if I should look at the autopilot configuration to understand whether P2 projects are an option here, or if I should just log this as another all-blocked cycle and move forward with a skip-lock.


cat /workspace/agent/autopilot-config.json 2>/dev/null || echo "not found"

Read autopilot config


Gemini

$20/mo subscription — no CodexBar tracking, manually updated from gemini.google.com/usage

LM Studio

local model server — always-available when running at lm_studio_url


So the task message said eligible projects are StageHand (P1) and nanoclaw (P1). At 52.2% burnable, this falls in the "comfortable" range (between 40 and 60 threshold), which typically means P1 and P2 projects. But the task said only P1 is eligible.

Wait, actually let me re-read the summary more carefully:
- "eligible: StageHand (P1), nanoclaw (P1); next_reset_at: 2026-08-01T20:59:59.499Z; 5h at 100% (just reset), 7d at 63%"
Both P1 projects are blocked, so this is an all-blocked cycle. But looking at the thresholds, 52.2% burnable should fall between comfortable (40%) and flush (60%), which would normally make P1 and P2 eligible—yet the task message only listed P1 as eligible. The task message from the trigger script is what I should follow here, so I'll respect that only P1 projects are eligible even though the burnable percentage suggests P2 should qualify. Since both P1 projects are blocked, this is another all-blocked cycle—I need to log it, write a skip-lock until the next quota reset on 2026-08-01, notify slack-infrastructure, and clean up the running state.

But actually, a skip-lock until August 1st feels too long given that both blockers are really just waiting on James—either to restart the service or answer the toolchain questions. The previous skip-locks were tied to quota resets, but this situation is different since the real unblocking trigger is James taking action, not time passing. I should probably set a shorter skip-lock instead. Looking at the previous skip-lock pattern, setting it a few hours ahead makes more sense than blocking for days. Since James is in Austin and it's evening, I'll set the skip-lock to around 9 AM CT tomorrow to give him time to sleep and potentially respond in the morning.

Now I'm writing out the all-blocked cycle log entry and configuring the skip lock accordingly.


Bash

cat >> /workspace/agent/autopilot-run-log.jsonl << 'EOF'
{"ts":"2026-07-28T00:30:00.000Z","tier":"high","outcome":"all-blocked","projects_assessed":["nanoclaw","StageHand"],"blocked_on":"James: nanoclaw=Studio restart + git push (proxy down); StageHand=5 toolchain questions unanswered","quota_pct":52.2,"notes":"6th consecutive all-blocked cycle; skip-lock set to 2026-07-28T14:00:00.000Z (9am CT)"}
EOF
echo "logged"

Log all-blocked cycle


logged


cat > /workspace/agent/autopilot-skip-lock.json << 'EOF'
{"skip_lock_until":"2026-07-28T14:00:00.000Z","reason":"both P1 projects blocked on James: nanoclaw=Studio restart pending; StageHand=5 toolchain questions unanswered. Resume 9am CT.","written_at":"2026-07-28T00:30:00.000Z"}
EOF
echo "skip-lock written"

Write skip-lock until 9am CT tomorrow


skip-lock written


rm /workspace/agent/autopilot-running-lock.json && echo "running lock removed"

Remove autopilot running lock


running lock removed


<message to="slack-infrastructure">**Autopilot — 7:30 PM CT cycle (high tier, 52.2% burnable)**

All-blocked. Sixth consecutive blocked cycle.

**nanoclaw (P1):** 7 commits on Mac Studio ready for `pnpm test` + service restart. `git push origin main` still failing — OneCLI proxy at port 10255 unreachable. Needs James to restart and push manually.

**StageHand (P1):** 5 toolchain questions resent Jul 27, still unanswered.

Skip-lock set until 9am CT tomorrow (2026-07-28T14:00Z). Cycles resume then or when James unblocks one of these.</message>