This session is being continued from a previous conversation that ran out of context. The summary below covers the earlier portion of the conversation.

Summary:
1. Primary Request and Intent:

Three sequential Portfolio Autopilot cycles triggered on Jul 19, 2026, each instructing Nano to pick ONE actionable unit of work from eligible projects (StageHand P1, nanoclaw P1, AgenticLever P2, RoadSense P2, qip-qien P2, congressional-trading P3, TradingBot25 P3).

**Cycle 1 (resumed from prior session):** Apply the qip-qien SEV-1 auth fix — change `requireExpertApiUser` → `requireAdminApiUser` in 4 admin route files, commit, send for merge approval (review-required guard).

**Cycle 2 (9:35 PM CT trigger, 75% burnable):** With qip-qien done and all P1s otherwise blocked on James, produce a design plan for the nanoclaw provider fallback push() silent-drop bug (Greenfield planning task).

**Cycle 3 (10:00 PM CT trigger, 63.5% burnable):** With nanoclaw design sent and awaiting James's answers, implement congressional-trading Phase 4 — automated outcome monitoring script + weekly scheduled task (autonomous-ok continuation, P3).

2. Key Technical Concepts:

- **qip-qien SEV-1 auth bug**: `requireExpertApiUser` in `role-guard.ts` allows role='expert' OR 'admin'; `requireAdminApiUser` allows only 'admin'. Four `/api/admin/*` route files incorrectly used the permissive guard.
- **nanoclaw provider fallback chain**: `GeminiOpenAiClaudeProvider` routes plain chat → LM Studio → Claude → Codex; tool work → Claude → Codex → LM Studio. REST rungs (LM Studio, Codex) are stateless request-response via `OpenAiCompatRestProvider`.
- **nanoclaw push() silent-drop bug**: `query()` returns `push: (message) => activeClaudeQuery?.push(message)`. `activeClaudeQuery` is only set inside `claudeEvents()` (Claude rung). When a REST rung is active, `activeClaudeQuery` is null → `push()` is a no-op → follow-up messages from the poll-loop are permanently lost (poll-loop marks them completed immediately after `push()`).
- **Proposed fix — restPendingQueue**: Add `const restPendingQueue: string[] = []` in `query()` closure; `push()` enqueues when `activeClaudeQuery` is null; `eventsFor()` drains queue as sequential follow-up turns on the same history thread after each REST completion.
- **congressional-trading signal_outcomes**: 36 fired signals, all 30d settled. All-time precision 58.3%, last-20 65.0%, last-10 60.0%. `BREAKER_MIN_WIN_RATE = 0.40`. ntfy topics: `congressWatchSignals`, `claudeCodeWaitingOnYou`.
- **Nano scheduled task trigger protocol**: Script outputs `{"wakeAgent": bool, "data": {...}}` JSON. Agent wakes only if `wakeAgent: true`.
- **Portfolio Autopilot guards**: `review-required` (prepare fix + send for James approval); `autonomous-ok` (implement + report after).

3. Files and Code Sections:

- **`/workspace/extra/projects/qip-ask-qien/src/app/api/admin/users/route.ts`** (EDITED)
  - Changed line 3: `import { requireAdminApiUser } from '@/lib/role-guard'`
  - Changed lines 13, 40: `requireAdminApiUser()` (was `requireExpertApiUser()`)

- **`/workspace/extra/projects/qip-ask-qien/src/app/api/admin/users/[userId]/route.ts`** (EDITED)
  - Changed line 3: import → `requireAdminApiUser`
  - Changed line 14: guard call → `requireAdminApiUser()`

- **`/workspace/extra/projects/qip-ask-qien/src/app/api/admin/projects/route.ts`** (EDITED)
  - Changed line 3: import → `requireAdminApiUser`
  - Changed lines 8, 33: guard calls → `requireAdminApiUser()`

- **`/workspace/extra/projects/qip-ask-qien/src/app/api/admin/projects/[id]/route.ts`** (EDITED)
  - Changed line 3: import → `requireAdminApiUser`
  - Changed line 11: guard call → `requireAdminApiUser()`
  - Committed all 4 as `ee84254`: "fix(auth): restrict admin route guards to admin-only role"
  - TypeScript type-check clean, ESLint clean (1 pre-existing unrelated warning)

- **`/workspace/extra/projects/nanoclaw/container/agent-runner/src/providers/gemini-openai-claude.ts`** (READ — critical for design)
  - Lines 487-489: `push: (message) => activeClaudeQuery?.push(message), end: () => activeClaudeQuery?.end()` — the bug site
  - `eventsFor()` function handles REST rung completions with retry logic
  - `claudeEvents()` function sets `activeClaudeQuery`
  - REST rungs: `OpenAiCompatRestProvider.complete()` is stateless request-response using file-based history

- **`/workspace/extra/projects/nanoclaw/container/agent-runner/src/poll-loop.ts`** (READ — shows bug impact)
  - Lines 400-403: `query.push(prompt); markCompleted(keptIds);` — messages permanently marked completed after no-op push
  - Lines 476-483: unwrapped-nudge also calls `query.push()` — also a no-op for REST rungs

- **`/workspace/extra/projects/nanoclaw/container/agent-runner/src/providers/types.ts`** (READ)
  - `AgentQuery.push(message: string): void` — mid-turn message injection interface

- **`/workspace/agent/congressional-monitor.py`** (CREATED)
  ```python
  #!/usr/bin/env python3
  """Weekly precision monitor for congressional trading signals.
  Queries signal_outcomes, computes rolling 30d win rate (excess vs SPY)
  for last 10 / last 20 / all-time settled signals, outputs JSON for Nano task trigger.
  wakeAgent=true when active precision drops below 40% floor.
  """
  import json, sqlite3, sys, urllib.request, urllib.error

  DB_PATH = "/workspace/extra/projects/congressional-trading/data/congress_trades.db"
  NTFY_URL = "https://ntfy.sh/congressWatchSignals"
  WIN_RATE_FLOOR = 0.40

  def precision(vals: list) -> float | None:
      if not vals: return None
      wins = sum(1 for v in vals if (v or 0) > 0)
      return wins / len(vals)

  def ntfy_alert(title, body):
      req = urllib.request.Request(NTFY_URL, data=body.encode(),
          headers={"Title": title, "Priority": "high",
                   "Tags": "chart_with_downwards_trend,warning"}, method="POST")
      urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=10)

  def main():
      conn = sqlite3.connect(DB_PATH)
      rows = conn.execute("""SELECT return_30d_excess_pct, ticker, notified_at, conviction
             FROM signal_outcomes WHERE fired=1 AND return_30d_pct IS NOT NULL
             ORDER BY notified_at DESC""").fetchall()
      conn.close()
      n = len(rows)
      if n == 0:
          print(json.dumps({"wakeAgent": False, "data": {"note": "no settled signals yet"}}))
          return
      excess_vals = [r[0] for r in rows]
      p_all = precision(excess_vals)
      p_20 = precision(excess_vals[:20]) if n >= 20 else None
      p_10 = precision(excess_vals[:10]) if n >= 10 else None
      active_p = p_10 if p_10 is not None else p_all
      active_label = "last 10" if p_10 is not None else f"all {n}"
      summary = {"n_settled": n, "precision_all": round(p_all*100,1),
                 "precision_last_20": round(p_20*100,1) if p_20 else None,
                 "precision_last_10": round(p_10*100,1) if p_10 else None,
                 "active_window": active_label, "active_precision": round(active_p*100,1),
                 "floor_pct": WIN_RATE_FLOOR*100, "alert": active_p < WIN_RATE_FLOOR}
      if active_p < WIN_RATE_FLOOR:
          alert_msg = f"CongressWatch precision alert: {active_label} win rate {active_p*100:.1f}% < {WIN_RATE_FLOOR*100:.0f}% floor."
          ntfy_alert("CongressWatch: precision below floor", alert_msg)
          print(json.dumps({"wakeAgent": True, "data": {**summary, "alert_message": alert_msg}}))
      else:
          print(json.dumps({"wakeAgent": False, "data": summary}))
  ```
  Test output: `{"wakeAgent": false, "data": {"n_settled": 36, "precision_all": 58.3, "precision_last_20": 65.0, "precision_last_10": 60.0, "active_window": "last 10", "active_precision": 60.0, "floor_pct": 40.0, "alert": false}}`

- **`/workspace/extra/second-brain/portfolio/projects/qip-qien.md`** (EDITED)
  - Next action: "SEV-1 fix committed (ee84254); awaiting James merge approval"
  - Added note: "2026-07-19 — SEV-1 auth fix (autopilot run, high tier): admin route guards changed..."

- **`/workspace/extra/second-brain/portfolio/projects/nanoclaw.md`** (EDITED)
  - Next action: "Answer 3 push()-fix design questions → implement"
  - Added note: "2026-07-19 — Autopilot cycle (high tier): designed push() queuing fix for REST rungs..."

- **`/workspace/extra/second-brain/portfolio/BOARD.md`** (EDITED)
  - qip-qien row: Last activity → 2026-07-19, Next action → SEV-1 fix committed (ee84254)
  - nanoclaw row: Last activity → 2026-07-19, Next action → Answer 3 push()-fix design questions
  - Decision queue: SEV-1 item updated to "fix committed, needs merge"; nanoclaw fallback item updated to design questions

- **`/workspace/agent/autopilot-run-log.jsonl`** (APPENDED — 2 entries)
  - Cycle 1: `{"ts":"2026-07-19T21:30:00.000Z","project":"qip-qien","outcome":"fix_committed",...}`
  - Cycle 2: `{"ts":"2026-07-19T22:35:00.000Z","project":"nanoclaw","outcome":"plan_sent",...}`

4. Errors and Fixes:

- **`precision()` function TypeError**: Initial version used `wins = sum(1 for r in rows if (r[0] or 0) > 0)` where `rows` was already a list of floats (not tuples). Fixed by renaming parameter to `vals` and using `v` directly: `wins = sum(1 for v in vals if (v or 0) > 0)`.
- **config_versions schema error**: Script tried to query `created_at` on `config_versions` table; column doesn't exist. Non-blocking — used `try/except` pattern and the rest of the query succeeded.

5. Problem Solving:

- **All P1/P2 projects blocked on James**: Cycles 2 and 3 found no actionable P1/P2 work. Resolved by going to nanoclaw (P1 Greenfield design) then congressional-trading (P3 autonomous continuation).
- **REST rung push() semantics**: REST providers have no live channel — unlike Claude's streaming SSE which supports true mid-turn injection. Solution: queue-based deferred follow-up turns that preserve history continuity via `result.continuation`.
- **Self-contained monitoring script**: congressional-trading project uses a `.venv` with pip packages; container may not have them. Resolved by using only Python stdlib (`sqlite3`, `urllib.request`) — no imports from the congressional-trading project itself.
- **Scheduled task wake-up timing**: Two scheduled reset-wakes exist for the same ~03:00 UTC window from cycles 1 and 2 (task-1784496989107-j9jq78 at 2026-07-26T01:59:59Z and task-1784498686782-g74qh1 at 2026-07-20T08:00:01Z). Cycle 3 added task-1784500443577-zzfvxv at 2026-07-20T02:59:59.800Z.

6. All User Messages:

- <task from="telegram-mg-17796" time="Jul 19, 2026, 9:35 PM">Script output: {"burnable_pct": 75, "tier": "high", "implementationModel": "claude-sonnet", "eligibleProjects": [StageHand P1, nanoclaw P1, AgenticLever P2, RoadSense P2, qip-qien P2, congressional-trading P3, TradingBot25 P3], "next_reset_at": "2026-07-20T03:00:01.102Z", ...} Instructions: Portfolio Autopilot run triggered. [full autopilot instructions]</task>

- <task from="telegram-mg-17796" time="Jul 19, 2026, 10:00 PM">Script output: {"burnable_pct": 63.5, "tier": "high", "implementationModel": "claude-sonnet", "eligibleProjects": [StageHand P1, nanoclaw P1, AgenticLever P2, RoadSense P2, qip-qien P2, congressional-trading P3, TradingBot25 P3], "next_reset_at": "2026-07-20T02:59:59.800Z", "claude_windows": {"5h": {"remaining_pct": 86, "resets_in_sec": 16199}, "7d": {"remaining_pct": 91, "resets_in_sec": 512999}}} Instructions: Portfolio Autopilot run triggered. [full autopilot instructions]</task>

- (Summary request — CRITICAL text-only response, no tool calls)

7. Pending Tasks:

- **congressional-trading Phase 4 wrap-up** (in progress): Still need to update congressional-trading project card Notes + Next action, update BOARD.md Last activity row, log cycle 3 to autopilot-run-log.jsonl, send outcome note to slack-infrastructure and telegram-mg-17796.
- **nanoclaw push() fix implementation**: Awaiting James's answers to 3 design questions (sent to slack-infrastructure). Once answered: implement `restPendingQueue` in `gemini-openai-claude.ts` + tests.
- **qip-qien SEV-1 merge**: Awaiting James's merge sign-off. Fix committed at ee84254, merge request sent to slack-infrastructure.
- **Decision queue (unanswered)**:
  - nanoclaw push()-fix design questions (3): follow-up-turn UX acceptable? Claude drain restPendingQueue too? Green-light tests?
  - qip-qien SEV-1 merge sign-off
  - congressional-trading threshold: 11.5/LOW/edge≥2 config — merge?
  - congressional-trading dual-poller: Mac Mini or Studio?
  - nanoclaw metric: confirm "decisions answered per week"
  - RoadSense 5 launch questions (5)
  - StageHand toolchain questions (5, voice partly answered by Chatterbox demo)
- **Supertonic prioritization this week**: James said "We should prioritize this for this week" for StageHand TTS integration.

8. Current Work:

Immediately before the summary request, the third autopilot cycle was completing congressional-trading Phase 4. The work was:

1. ✅ Wrote `/workspace/agent/congressional-monitor.py` — Python stdlib-only monitoring script querying `signal_outcomes`, computing 30d excess precision (last 10/20/all), outputting Nano task JSON
2. ✅ Fixed `precision()` bug (TypeError: float not subscriptable)
3. ✅ Verified test run: `{"wakeAgent": false, "data": {"n_settled": 36, "precision_all": 58.3, "precision_last_20": 65.0, "precision_last_10": 60.0, ...}}`
4. ✅ Scheduled weekly monitoring task: task-1784500441752-hqopzy, Mondays 9am CDT, recurrence `0 9 * * 1`
5. ✅ Scheduled next reset-wake: task-1784500443577-zzfvxv at 2026-07-20T02:59:59.800Z
6. ❌ NOT YET DONE: Update congressional-trading project card + BOARD.md + autopilot log + send outcome note

9. Optional Next Step:

Complete the congressional-trading Phase 4 wrap-up that was in progress:
- Update `/workspace/extra/second-brain/portfolio/projects/congressional-trading.md` — append a dated note to Notes about Phase 4 completion (weekly monitor at `/workspace/agent/congressional-monitor.py`, task-1784500441752-hqopzy, current precision 58.3% all / 60% last-10), update Next action to "Await James's threshold decision; monitor running weekly (Mondays 9am)"
- Update `BOARD.md` — congressional-trading row Last activity → 2026-07-19
- Append cycle 3 entry to `/workspace/agent/autopilot-run-log.jsonl`
- Send 2-3 line outcome note to `slack-infrastructure` and `telegram-mg-17796`

This directly continues the third autopilot cycle task that was executing when the summary was requested.

---

You MUST wrap all responses in <message to="name">...</message> blocks.
Available destinations: `cli-local`, `cw-coder`, `ingest-into-wiki`, `slack-agenticlever-website`, `slack-infrastructure`, `slack-mg-17835`, `slack-mg-17835-2`, `slack-mg-17835-3`, `slack-mg-17835-4`, `slack-mg-17835-5`, `slack-mg-17835-6`, `slack-qip-qien`, `slack-roadsense`, `slack-stagehand`, `slack-tradingbot25`, `telegram-mg-17796`, `telegram-mg-17800`.

If you need specific details from before compaction (like exact code snippets, error messages, or content you generated), read the full transcript at: /home/node/.claude/projects/-workspace-agent/033a4a00-9171-4e08-9a79-6b99f177355d.jsonl
Continue the conversation from where it left off without asking the user any further questions. Resume directly — do not acknowledge the summary, do not recap what was happening, do not preface with "I'll continue" or similar. Pick up the last task as if the break never happened.


#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""Weekly precision monitor for congressional trading signals.

Queries signal_outcomes, computes rolling 30d win rate (excess vs SPY)
for last 10 / last 20 / all-time settled signals, and outputs JSON for
the Nano task trigger:
  { "wakeAgent": true/false, "data": { ... } }

wakeAgent=true when the active precision window drops below 40% (floor).
Always logs a human-readable summary to stderr for the run log.
"""
import json
import sqlite3
import sys
import urllib.request
import urllib.error

DB_PATH = "/workspace/extra/projects/congressional-trading/data/congress_trades.db"
NTFY_URL = "https://ntfy.sh/congressWatchSignals"
WIN_RATE_FLOOR = 0.40  # BREAKER_MIN_WIN_RATE from config.py

def precision(vals: list) -> float | None:
    if not vals:
        return None
    wins = sum(1 for v in vals if (v or 0) > 0)
    return wins / len(vals)

def ntfy_alert(title: str, body: str) -> None:
    try:
        req = urllib.request.Request(
            NTFY_URL,
            data=body.encode(),
            headers={"Title": title, "Priority": "high", "Tags": "chart_with_downwards_trend,warning"},
            method="POST",
        )
        urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=10)
    except Exception as e:
        print(f"[congressional-monitor] ntfy failed: {e}", file=sys.stderr)

def main() -> None:
    try:
        conn = sqlite3.connect(DB_PATH)
        rows = conn.execute(
            """SELECT return_30d_excess_pct, ticker, notified_at, conviction
               FROM signal_outcomes
               WHERE fired=1 AND return_30d_pct IS NOT NULL
               ORDER BY notified_at DESC"""
        ).fetchall()
        conn.close()
    except Exception as e:
        print(json.dumps({"wakeAgent": False, "data": {"error": str(e)}}))
        return

    n = len(rows)
    if n == 0:
        print(json.dumps({"wakeAgent": False, "data": {"note": "no settled signals yet"}}))
        return

    excess_vals = [r[0] for r in rows]
    p_all = precision(excess_vals)
    p_20 = precision(excess_vals[:20]) if n >= 20 else None
    p_10 = precision(excess_vals[:10]) if n >= 10 else None

    # Active window = tightest settled window with ≥ 10 signals
    active_p = p_10 if p_10 is not None else p_all
    active_label = "last 10" if p_10 is not None else f"all {n}"

    summary = {
        "n_settled": n,
        "precision_all": round(p_all * 100, 1),
        "precision_last_20": round(p_20 * 100, 1) if p_20 is not None else None,
        "precision_last_10": round(p_10 * 100, 1) if p_10 is not None else None,
        "active_window": active_label,
        "active_precision": round(active_p * 100, 1),
        "floor_pct": WIN_RATE_FLOOR * 100,
        "alert": active_p < WIN_RATE_FLOOR,
    }

    print(
        f"[congressional-monitor] {n} settled | all={p_all*100:.1f}%"
        + (f" | last20={p_20*100:.1f}%" if p_20 else "")
        + (f" | last10={p_10*100:.1f}%" if p_10 else "")
        + f" | floor={WIN_RATE_FLOOR*100:.0f}%",
        file=sys.stderr,
    )

    if active_p < WIN_RATE_FLOOR:
        alert_msg = (
            f"CongressWatch precision alert: {active_label} win rate "
            f"{active_p*100:.1f}% is below the {WIN_RATE_FLOOR*100:.0f}% floor. "
            f"Consider tuning threshold or conviction gate."
        )
        print(f"[congressional-monitor] ALERT: {alert_msg}", file=sys.stderr)
        ntfy_alert("CongressWatch: precision below floor", alert_msg)
        print(json.dumps({"wakeAgent": True, "data": {**summary, "alert_message": alert_msg}}))
    else:
        print(
            f"[congressional-monitor] Precision holding ({active_label}: {active_p*100:.1f}%). No action needed.",
            file=sys.stderr,
        )
        print(json.dumps({"wakeAgent": False, "data": summary}))

if __name__ == "__main__":
    main()


# Portfolio Board

One row per active project. Cards with full detail live in `projects/`.
Operating model + decisions: [PLAN.md](PLAN.md).
Stages: `research → discovery → spec → build → test → feedback → maintain`.
Guard: `review-required` (James approves merges) or `autonomous-ok` (agents proceed, report after).

**Seeded 2026-07-06 from git activity — stages and next actions are drafts until James confirms.**

| Project | Stage | Guard | Next action | Blocked on James | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| [portfolio-autopilot](projects/portfolio-autopilot.md) | build | autonomous-ok | Monitor headroom log; calibration surfaces reserve suggestions after 5+ snapshots | none | 2026-07-12 |
| [qip-qien](projects/qip-qien.md) | feedback | review-required | SEV-1 fix committed (ee84254); merge sign-off needed | merge approval | 2026-07-19 |
| [congressional-trading](projects/congressional-trading.md) | test | autonomous-ok | James to pick thresholds from sweep results → merge to main | threshold decision | 2026-07-12 |
| [FindRefurbishedAppleProduct](projects/FindRefurbishedAppleProduct.md) | discovery | autonomous-ok | Confirm goal — brand new repo | confirm card | 2026-07-06 |
| [TradingBot25](projects/TradingBot25.md) | build | review-required | Confirm goal + current strategy state | confirm card | 2026-06-26 |
| [AgenticLever](projects/AgenticLever.md) | build | autonomous-ok | Confirm goal | confirm card | 2026-06-29 |
| [pool-monitor](projects/pool-monitor.md) | maintain | autonomous-ok | None — steady state? confirm | confirm card | 2026-06-17 |
| [StageHand](projects/StageHand.md) | discovery | autonomous-ok | Await James answers on 5 toolchain questions; Local Recs next if green-lit | voice, agent, posting, pricing, Local Recs y/n | 2026-07-09 |
| [MentorCore](projects/MentorCore.md) | research | autonomous-ok | Parked — no bandwidth | none | 2026-06-11 |
| [RoadSense](projects/RoadSense.md) | spec | autonomous-ok | Answer 5 launch questions → unblock implementation | auth model, city, GIS license, creator posture, metric | 2026-07-08 |
| [nanoclaw](projects/nanoclaw.md) | build | autonomous-ok | Answer 3 push()-fix design questions → implement | design questions, deploy, metric | 2026-07-19 |
| [projects-monorepo-infra](projects/projects-monorepo-infra.md) | build | review-required | Name the token-spend-avoided metric | metric decision | 2026-07-16 |
| cortex *(no card yet)* | maintain | review-required | Decide: fill Reddit OAuth creds, or drop Reddit ingest (project's own docs call the API "increasingly restrictive") | Reddit creds / keep-or-drop call | 2026-07-12 |
| CodexBar *(no card yet)* | maintain | review-required | Decide upstream-sync strategy (1056 commits behind steipete/CodexBar); scrub steipete paths/bundle-ID from docs | sync strategy | 2026-07-12 |
| CodexBarLocal *(no card yet)* | maintain | review-required | 34 uncommitted changes incl. a stray Xcode scaffold — commit, stash, or discard | commit/stash/discard call | 2026-07-12 |
| CodexBar-ESP32 *(no card yet)* | maintain | autonomous-ok | None right now — mDNS doc gap fixed today; 3 minor observations items open (untested pace-formula dup, lock-ordering) | none | 2026-07-12 |
| localsky_radar *(no card yet)* | build | review-required | `git init` + first commit (2,227 lines, zero version control); rewrite CLAUDE.md (wrongly claims unimplemented) | confirm git-init | 2026-07-12 |

## Decision queue

Questions for James, appended by Nano; answered items move to the card's Notes and are removed here.

- **nanoclaw metric:** Proposed metric = "decisions James answers per week from daily brief" (proxy for brief usefulness). Confirm or rename? (Card currently undefined.)
- **RoadSense launch questions (5):** auth model, generalization city, GIS license, creator posture, 30-day success metric. Sent via Telegram 2026-07-08.
- **congressional-trading dual-poller (2026-07-12):** `com.congresswatch.daily` launchd job confirmed loaded on *both* the Mac Mini and this Studio simultaneously — doubles LLM spend and races notification cooldowns. Project's own `agentic_plan.md` already flags this as unresolved. Which machine is authoritative?
- **qip-ask-qien SEV-1 merge (2026-07-19):** fix committed (ee84254) — admin route guards changed from `requireExpertApiUser` → `requireAdminApiUser` on 4 routes. TypeScript + lint clean. Ready to merge; needs James's sign-off to push.
- **nanoclaw push() fix design (2026-07-19):** REST pending queue design sent to James (#infrastructure). 3 questions: (1) follow-up-turn UX acceptable? (2) Claude rung also drain restPendingQueue as safety net? (3) green-light tests alongside fix?

## Recently shipped

- **Portfolio audit** 2026-07-12 — parallel survey across 20 projects; auto-fixed 10 AGENTS.md/CLAUDE.md symmetry gaps, an mDNS doc gap (CodexBar-ESP32), a stale phase claim (MentorCore), a wrong-hostname ntfy-link bug (pool-monitor, verified via 76 passing tests), a test-isolation gap (AgenticLever, verified via 32 passing tests), and this file's own Tailscale hostname drift.
- **nanoclaw** 2026-07-08 — fix(router): mention-sticky Slack session scoping committed


# nanoclaw

- Repo: `~/projects/nanoclaw` · https://github.com/jamesjlopez/nanoclaw
- Goal: the agent platform itself — powers this whole operating model
- Stage: build
- Guard: autonomous-ok
- Metric: _undefined — James to name (candidate: decision questions James actually answers/week — proxy for brief usefulness)_
- Blocked on James: 3 design questions (see decision queue) + Studio deploy + metric confirm
- Next action: James to answer provider-fallback design questions → implement push() queuing fix

## Notes
- 2026-07-06 — Migrated Mini → Studio (see nanoclaw memory: machine-migration-gotchas). Daily brief + portfolio board went live today.
- 2026-07-06 — Reddit ingestion merged 2026-06-13 but non-functional: unauthenticated `.json` API is 403-blocked. **Dropped** 2026-07-07 — Reddit now requires manual approval for new OAuth apps (scraping crackdown). James doesn't find Reddit content high-signal enough to pursue. Dead feature, no further action.
- 2026-07-08 — Autopilot cycle (medium tier): built `/workspace/agent/autopilot-summary.mjs` — outcome tracker for autopilot run log. Reads autopilot-run-log.jsonl, prints stats by outcome/project/tier/model + recent run history. Supports `--json` and `--last N` flags.
- 2026-07-08 — Autopilot cycle (minimal tier): built `/workspace/agent/autopilot-calibrate.mjs` — weekly calibration script. Computes 7-day stats (runs, success rate, active projects), flags stalled autopilot or low success rate. Scheduled weekly Mondays 08:00 CT (task-1783485079941-19i8vt).
- 2026-07-08 — Autopilot cycle (high tier): added skip-lock mechanism to `autopilot-trigger.mjs` — checks `autopilot-skip-lock.json` before waking; agent writes lock after all-blocked cycles to suppress repeated 30-min trigger fires. Eliminated ~6 wasted cycles per blocked period. Also queued nanoclaw metric proposal in Decision queue.
- 2026-07-08 — Autopilot cycle (medium tier): committed fix(router) — mention-sticky session scoping now respects wiring's `session_mode`. Previously Slack shared-mode wirings were coerced to per-thread, causing bot to go silent after initial @mention. RED→GREEN regression test added.
- 2026-07-08 — Autopilot cycle (medium tier): committed fix(provider) — hallucinated tool-call tag detection on REST rungs. Adds retry + honestNoToolsReply fallback. Both commits pushed to GitHub (846ce6b..b724c2a). Awaiting Mini deploy (SSH unavailable from container).
- 2026-07-19 — Autopilot cycle (high tier): designed push() queuing fix for REST rungs. Root cause: push() delegates to activeClaudeQuery?.push() which is null for LM Studio/Codex, silently dropping follow-up messages. Fix: restPendingQueue in query() closure; push() enqueues when Claude not active; eventsFor() drains queue as sequential follow-up turns after REST completion. Plan + red-team sent to James via #infrastructure. 3 design questions pending answers.


# qip-qien

- Repo: `~/projects/qip-ask-qien` · https://github.com/jamesjlopez/qip-qien
- Goal: _to confirm — expert Q&A persona for medical-device quality (Ramon's domain)?_
- Stage: feedback (seeded — confirm)
- Guard: **review-required** — customer trial in progress
- Metric: _undefined — James to name (candidate: trial-user questions answered satisfactorily/week)_
- Blocked on James: confirm this card
- Next action: SEV-1 fix committed (ee84254); awaiting James merge approval

## Notes
- 2026-07-06 — Seeded from git activity: "chore: log Fable model review findings" (same-day commit).
- 2026-07-19 — SEV-1 auth fix (autopilot run, high tier): admin route guards on `/api/admin/users`, `/api/admin/users/[userId]`, `/api/admin/projects`, `/api/admin/projects/[id]` changed from `requireExpertApiUser` → `requireAdminApiUser`. TypeScript + lint clean. Committed ee84254. Awaiting James merge sign-off.


import { NextRequest, NextResponse } from 'next/server'
import { and, eq } from 'drizzle-orm'
import { requireAdminApiUser } from '@/lib/role-guard'
import { db } from '@/db'
import { projects } from '@/db/schema'

export async function PATCH(
  request: NextRequest,
  { params }: { params: Promise<{ id: string }> },
) {
  const auth = await requireAdminApiUser()
  if (!auth.ok) return auth.response

  const { id } = await params
  const body = await request.json().catch(() => ({}))

  if (!('isActive' in body) || typeof body.isActive !== 'boolean') {
    return NextResponse.json({ error: 'isActive (boolean) is required' }, { status: 400 })
  }

  const [updated] = await db
    .update(projects)
    .set({ isActive: body.isActive, updatedAt: new Date() })
    .where(and(eq(projects.id, id), eq(projects.tenantId, auth.user.tenantId)))
    .returning()

  if (!updated) {
    return NextResponse.json({ error: 'Project not found' }, { status: 404 })
  }

  return NextResponse.json(updated)
}


<system>Your response was not delivered — it was not wrapped in <message to="name">...</message> blocks. All output must be wrapped: use <message to="name"> for content to send, or <internal> for scratchpad. Your destinations: cli-local, cw-coder, ingest-into-wiki, slack-agenticlever-website, slack-infrastructure, slack-mg-17835, slack-mg-17835-2, slack-mg-17835-3, slack-mg-17835-4, slack-mg-17835-5, slack-mg-17835-6, slack-qip-qien, slack-roadsense, slack-stagehand, slack-tradingbot25, telegram-mg-17796, telegram-mg-17800. Please re-send your response with the correct wrapping.</system>


Ingest Claude blog post on marketing operations automation


Let me continue completing the congressional-trading Phase 4 wrap-up that was in progress. I need to:

1. Update `/workspace/extra/second-brain/portfolio/projects/congressional-trading.md` — append a dated note about Phase 4 completion
2. Update `BOARD.md` — congressional-trading row Last activity → 2026-07-19
3. Append cycle 3 entry to `/workspace/agent/autopilot-run-log.jsonl`
4. Send outcome notes to slack-infrastructure and telegram-mg-17796

Let me start by reading the files I need to update.


1	# congressional-trading
2
3	- Repo: `~/projects/congressional-trading` · https://github.com/jamesjlopez/congressional-trading
4	- Goal: Score congressional trade disclosures (0–13 scale) and push high-conviction buy signals via ntfy when score ≥ 9 + quality gates pass. In shadow/measurement mode — scoring and logging signals but not pushing live notifications yet.
5	- Stage: test
6	- Guard: autonomous-ok
7	- Metric: Signal precision (% of signals that are wins at 30/60d) over shadow period — threshold TBD by James
8	- Blocked on James: define exit criteria — what win-rate and sample size graduates it to live?
9	- Next action: James to review sweep findings and decide: (a) drop conviction gate LOW/MEDIUM? (b) raise threshold to 11.5? Then merge feat/agentic-alert-loop → main
10
11	## Notes
12	- 2026-07-06 — Seeded from git activity: "Keep shadow measurement active during..." (same-day commit). Runs on always-on machine.
13	- 2026-07-06 — Explored codebase: scoring algorithm is 0–13 scale with 8 components (committee, cluster, size, small-cap bonus, options bonus, sell pressure, strategic LLM score, disruption LLM score). Notification threshold = 9.0 after timeliness multiplier. Max 1 notification/run. 14k+ historical trades stored. `signal_outcomes` table tracks 30/60d returns. Key open issue: win-rate uses current price snapshot, not fixed-horizon (backlog item). Forward-looking predictor module also exists.
14	- 2026-07-06 — James approved agentic calibration approach: backtest first → data-derived thresholds → ongoing automated monitoring. Scoped as 3 phases below.
15
16	### Calibration task — 3 phases
17
18	**Phase 1: Fix win-rate calculation** ✅ DONE 2026-07-12
19	- Added `compute_fixed_horizon()` to `tools/win_rate.py`: uses `price_history` table (price at tx_date+30d vs tx_date) — stable classification, not today's rolling price
20	- `compute()` dispatches to fixed-horizon when `price_history` is populated; rolling fallback for fresh installs
21	- 8 TDD tests added to `tests/test_win_rate.py`, all GREEN
22	- Committed: `feat/agentic-alert-loop` — "fix(win_rate): use fixed-horizon returns instead of rolling price snapshot"
23
24	**Phase 2: Backtest sweep script** ✅ DONE 2026-07-12
25	- `scripts/backtest_sweep.py` added. Sweeps score threshold (7–13), conviction (LOW/MEDIUM/HIGH), edge-factor min (2/3/4).
26	- Quick mode: reads signal_outcomes (n=36, no price_history needed). Full mode: replays 7k+ trades from price_history.
27	- Quick mode ran: signals scored 10.8–14.5. Threshold 12.5+ improves precision 58%→67% and cuts max drawdown from -40.7% to -7.7%.
28	- **Price_history backfill needed for full sweep** (python scripts/backtest_sweep.py --backfill --csv results.csv) — yfinance not installed in container.
29	- Committed: `feat/agentic-alert-loop` — "feat(backtest): add threshold/conviction/edge sweep script"
30
31	**Phase 3: Backfill + full sweep** ✅ DONE 2026-07-12
32	- Batched yfinance backfill: 960k price rows across 1,378 tickers in 39s
33	- Ran full replay sweep: 6,493 trades, 15 months, 117 config combinations
34	- CSV saved to `data/backtest_sweep_2026-07-12.csv`
35	- **Key finding**: Current config (HIGH conviction, thresh=9.0, edge≥3) = 44% precision, -0.96% median excess vs SPY
36	- **Best config**: threshold=11.5, LOW conviction, edge≥2 → 54% precision, +0.67% median excess, 398 signals/year
37	- **Surprising**: HIGH conviction = WORSE performance. Unresearched signals at high base scores outperform LLM-tagged HIGH conviction ones — suggesting base score is more predictive than LLM overlay.
38	- Results sent to James via Slack 2026-07-12. Waiting for threshold decision to implement config changes.
39
40	**Phase 4: Ongoing automated outcome monitoring** (closes the loop)
41	- Schedule a weekly Nano task: read `signal_outcomes`, compute rolling 30/60d precision for last 10/20/all-time signals
42	- If precision drops below threshold: surface tuning suggestion to James via Telegram
43	- If precision is holding: brief weekly note in daily brief or silence
44	- Estimated effort: ~2 hours to set up scheduled task
45

# congressional-trading

- Repo: `~/projects/congressional-trading` · https://github.com/jamesjlopez/congressional-trading
- Goal: Score congressional trade disclosures (0–13 scale) and push high-conviction buy signals via ntfy when score ≥ 9 + quality gates pass. In shadow/measurement mode — scoring and logging signals but not pushing live notifications yet.
- Stage: test
- Guard: autonomous-ok
- Metric: Signal precision (% of signals that are wins at 30/60d) over shadow period — threshold TBD by James
- Blocked on James: define exit criteria — what win-rate and sample size graduates it to live?
- Next action: James to review sweep findings and decide: (a) drop conviction gate LOW/MEDIUM? (b) raise threshold to 11.5? Then merge feat/agentic-alert-loop → main

## Notes
- 2026-07-06 — Seeded from git activity: "Keep shadow measurement active during..." (same-day commit). Runs on always-on machine.
- 2026-07-06 — Explored codebase: scoring algorithm is 0–13 scale with 8 components (committee, cluster, size, small-cap bonus, options bonus, sell pressure, strategic LLM score, disruption LLM score). Notification threshold = 9.0 after timeliness multiplier. Max 1 notification/run. 14k+ historical trades stored. `signal_outcomes` table tracks 30/60d returns. Key open issue: win-rate uses current price snapshot, not fixed-horizon (backlog item). Forward-looking predictor module also exists.
- 2026-07-06 — James approved agentic calibration approach: backtest first → data-derived thresholds → ongoing automated monitoring. Scoped as 3 phases below.

### Calibration task — 3 phases

**Phase 1: Fix win-rate calculation** ✅ DONE 2026-07-12
- Added `compute_fixed_horizon()` to `tools/win_rate.py`: uses `price_history` table (price at tx_date+30d vs tx_date) — stable classification, not today's rolling price
- `compute()` dispatches to fixed-horizon when `price_history` is populated; rolling fallback for fresh installs
- 8 TDD tests added to `tests/test_win_rate.py`, all GREEN
- Committed: `feat/agentic-alert-loop` — "fix(win_rate): use fixed-horizon returns instead of rolling price snapshot"

**Phase 2: Backtest sweep script** ✅ DONE 2026-07-12
- `scripts/backtest_sweep.py` added. Sweeps score threshold (7–13), conviction (LOW/MEDIUM/HIGH), edge-factor min (2/3/4).
- Quick mode: reads signal_outcomes (n=36, no price_history needed). Full mode: replays 7k+ trades from price_history.
- Quick mode ran: signals scored 10.8–14.5. Threshold 12.5+ improves precision 58%→67% and cuts max drawdown from -40.7% to -7.7%.
- **Price_history backfill needed for full sweep** (python scripts/backtest_sweep.py --backfill --csv results.csv) — yfinance not installed in container.
- Committed: `feat/agentic-alert-loop` — "feat(backtest): add threshold/conviction/edge sweep script"

**Phase 3: Backfill + full sweep** ✅ DONE 2026-07-12
- Batched yfinance backfill: 960k price rows across 1,378 tickers in 39s
- Ran full replay sweep: 6,493 trades, 15 months, 117 config combinations
- CSV saved to `data/backtest_sweep_2026-07-12.csv`
- **Key finding**: Current config (HIGH conviction, thresh=9.0, edge≥3) = 44% precision, -0.96% median excess vs SPY
- **Best config**: threshold=11.5, LOW conviction, edge≥2 → 54% precision, +0.67% median excess, 398 signals/year
- **Surprising**: HIGH conviction = WORSE performance. Unresearched signals at high base scores outperform LLM-tagged HIGH conviction ones — suggesting base score is more predictive than LLM overlay.
- Results sent to James via Slack 2026-07-12. Waiting for threshold decision to implement config changes.

**Phase 4: Ongoing automated outcome monitoring** (closes the loop)
- Schedule a weekly Nano task: read `signal_outcomes`, compute rolling 30/60d precision for last 10/20/all-time signals
- If precision drops below threshold: surface tuning suggestion to James via Telegram
- If precision is holding: brief weekly note in daily brief or silence
- Estimated effort: ~2 hours to set up scheduled task


1	{"timestamp":"2026-07-07T15:04:27Z","tier":"high","burnable_pct":76.2,"project":"nanoclaw","task_type":"continuation","model_used":"claude-sonnet","outcome":"completed","notes":"1) Created portfolio board infrastructure (BOARD.md, PLAN.md, 7 project cards) — was missing from second-brain. 2) Fixed Gemini+LM Studio absent from autopilot output — added as untracked_providers in config. Both now show in routing summary as always-available. Gemini confirmed $20/mo subscription."}
2	{"timestamp":"2026-07-08T08:35:00Z","tier":"medium","burnable_pct":27.3,"project":"nanoclaw","task_type":"continuation","model_used":"claude-sonnet","outcome":"completed","notes":"Built /workspace/agent/autopilot-summary.mjs — outcome tracker for autopilot run log. Reads autopilot-run-log.jsonl, prints stats by outcome/project/tier/model and recent run history. Supports --json and --last N flags."}
3	{"timestamp":"2026-07-08T09:05:00Z","tier":"minimal","burnable_pct":3.8,"project":"nanoclaw","task_type":"continuation","model_used":"claude-sonnet","outcome":"completed","notes":"Built /workspace/agent/autopilot-calibrate.mjs — weekly calibration script. Computes 7-day stats (runs, success rate, active projects), flags stalls. Scheduled weekly Mondays 08:00 CT (task-1783485079941-19i8vt)."}
4	{"timestamp":"2026-07-08T09:32:00Z","tier":"minimal","burnable_pct":1.3,"project":"none","task_type":"skipped","model_used":"none","outcome":"skipped","notes":"No actionable next step: StageHand blocked on James (Instagram links); nanoclaw next actions (Slack file commit needs repo access, outcome metric needs James confirmation). 5h window resets in ~3h — scheduled next wake at reset."}
5	{"timestamp":"2026-07-08T10:01:00Z","tier":"minimal","burnable_pct":2.8,"project":"none","task_type":"skipped","model_used":"none","outcome":"skipped","notes":"Same blockers: StageHand needs James Instagram links; nanoclaw next actions need repo access or James metric call. 5h resets at 08:20 UTC (~2.8h away)."}
6	{"timestamp":"2026-07-08T10:30:00Z","tier":"minimal","burnable_pct":4.3,"project":"none","task_type":"skipped","model_used":"none","outcome":"skipped","notes":"Repeated skip — same blockers. Silent this cycle to avoid Telegram noise. 5h resets ~08:20 UTC."}
7	{"timestamp":"2026-07-08T11:00:00Z","tier":"low","burnable_pct":5.8,"project":"none","task_type":"skipped","model_used":"none","outcome":"skipped","notes":"Silent skip — same blockers, 5h resets in ~1.8h. Next wake at 08:20 UTC should have full quota."}
8	{"timestamp":"2026-07-08T11:30:00Z","tier":"low","burnable_pct":8.3,"project":"none","task_type":"skipped","model_used":"none","outcome":"skipped","notes":"Silent skip — same blockers, 5h resets in ~1.3h."}
9	{"timestamp":"2026-07-08T12:00:00Z","tier":"low","burnable_pct":9.8,"project":"none","task_type":"skipped","model_used":"none","outcome":"skipped","notes":"Silent skip — same blockers, 5h resets in ~50min."}
10	{"timestamp":"2026-07-08T12:30:00Z","tier":"low","burnable_pct":12.3,"project":"none","task_type":"skipped","model_used":"none","outcome":"skipped","notes":"Silent skip — same blockers, 5h resets in ~20min."}

{"timestamp":"2026-07-07T15:04:27Z","tier":"high","burnable_pct":76.2,"project":"nanoclaw","task_type":"continuation","model_used":"claude-sonnet","outcome":"completed","notes":"1) Created portfolio board infrastructure (BOARD.md, PLAN.md, 7 project cards) — was missing from second-brain. 2) Fixed Gemini+LM Studio absent from autopilot output — added as untracked_providers in config. Both now show in routing summary as always-available. Gemini confirmed $20/mo subscription."}
{"timestamp":"2026-07-08T08:35:00Z","tier":"medium","burnable_pct":27.3,"project":"nanoclaw","task_type":"continuation","model_used":"claude-sonnet","outcome":"completed","notes":"Built /workspace/agent/autopilot-summary.mjs — outcome tracker for autopilot run log. Reads autopilot-run-log.jsonl, prints stats by outcome/project/tier/model and recent run history. Supports --json and --last N flags."}
{"timestamp":"2026-07-08T09:05:00Z","tier":"minimal","burnable_pct":3.8,"project":"nanoclaw","task_type":"continuation","model_used":"claude-sonnet","outcome":"completed","notes":"Built /workspace/agent/autopilot-calibrate.mjs — weekly calibration script. Computes 7-day stats (runs, success rate, active projects), flags stalls. Scheduled weekly Mondays 08:00 CT (task-1783485079941-19i8vt)."}
{"timestamp":"2026-07-08T09:32:00Z","tier":"minimal","burnable_pct":1.3,"project":"none","task_type":"skipped","model_used":"none","outcome":"skipped","notes":"No actionable next step: StageHand blocked on James (Instagram links); nanoclaw next actions (Slack file commit needs repo access, outcome metric needs James confirmation). 5h window resets in ~3h — scheduled next wake at reset."}
{"timestamp":"2026-07-08T10:01:00Z","tier":"minimal","burnable_pct":2.8,"project":"none","task_type":"skipped","model_used":"none","outcome":"skipped","notes":"Same blockers: StageHand needs James Instagram links; nanoclaw next actions need repo access or James metric call. 5h resets at 08:20 UTC (~2.8h away)."}
{"timestamp":"2026-07-08T10:30:00Z","tier":"minimal","burnable_pct":4.3,"project":"none","task_type":"skipped","model_used":"none","outcome":"skipped","notes":"Repeated skip — same blockers. Silent this cycle to avoid Telegram noise. 5h resets ~08:20 UTC."}
{"timestamp":"2026-07-08T11:00:00Z","tier":"low","burnable_pct":5.8,"project":"none","task_type":"skipped","model_used":"none","outcome":"skipped","notes":"Silent skip — same blockers, 5h resets in ~1.8h. Next wake at 08:20 UTC should have full quota."}
{"timestamp":"2026-07-08T11:30:00Z","tier":"low","burnable_pct":8.3,"project":"none","task_type":"skipped","model_used":"none","outcome":"skipped","notes":"Silent skip — same blockers, 5h resets in ~1.3h."}
{"timestamp":"2026-07-08T12:00:00Z","tier":"low","burnable_pct":9.8,"project":"none","task_type":"skipped","model_used":"none","outcome":"skipped","notes":"Silent skip — same blockers, 5h resets in ~50min."}
{"timestamp":"2026-07-08T12:30:00Z","tier":"low","burnable_pct":12.3,"project":"none","task_type":"skipped","model_used":"none","outcome":"skipped","notes":"Silent skip — same blockers, 5h resets in ~20min."}


Prompt: <system>Your response was not delivered — it was not wrapped in <message to="name">...</message> blocks. All output must be wrapped: use <message to="name"> for content to send, or <internal> for scratchpad. Your destinations: cli-local, cw-coder, ingest-into-wiki, slack-agenticlever-website, slack-infrastructure, slack-mg-17835, slack-mg-17835-2, slack-mg-17835-3, slack-mg-17835-4, slack-mg-17835-5, slack-mg-17835-6, slack-qip-qien, slack-roadsense, slack-stagehand, slack-tradingbot25, telegram-mg-17796, telegram-mg-17800. Please re-send your response with the correct wrapping.</system>


Now let me update the congressional-trading project card, BOARD.md, and autopilot-run-log.jsonl. Let me do these in parallel.


Edit

**Phase 4: Ongoing automated outcome monitoring** (closes the loop)
- Schedule a weekly Nano task: read `signal_outcomes`, compute rolling 30/60d precision for last 10/20/all-time signals
- If precision drops below threshold: surface tuning suggestion to James via Telegram
- If precision is holding: brief weekly note in daily brief or silence
- Estimated effort: ~2 hours to set up scheduled task

**Phase 4: Ongoing automated outcome monitoring** ✅ DONE 2026-07-19
- `/workspace/agent/congressional-monitor.py` — stdlib-only script querying `signal_outcomes`, computing 30d excess precision (last-10 / last-20 / all-time), outputting `{"wakeAgent": bool, "data": {...}}` for Nano task trigger
- Alert threshold: 40% floor (`BREAKER_MIN_WIN_RATE`); sends ntfy push to `congressWatchSignals` topic on breach
- Current precision: 58.3% all-time / 65.0% last-20 / 60.0% last-10 (all well above floor)
- Scheduled weekly: task-1784500441752-hqopzy, Mondays 9am CDT (`0 9 * * 1`)


The file /workspace/extra/second-brain/portfolio/projects/congressional-trading.md has been updated successfully. (file state is current in your context — no need to Read it back)

**Phase 4: Ongoing automated outcome monitoring** ✅ DONE 2026-07-19
- `/workspace/agent/congressional-monitor.py` — stdlib-only script querying `signal_outcomes`, computing 30d excess precision (last-10 / last-20 / all-time), outputting `{"wakeAgent": bool, "data": {...}}` for Nano task trigger
- Alert threshold: 40% floor (`BREAKER_MIN_WIN_RATE`); sends ntfy push to `congressWatchSignals` topic on breach
- Current precision: 58.3% all-time / 65.0% last-20 / 60.0% last-10 (all well above floor)
- Scheduled weekly: task-1784500441752-hqopzy, Mondays 9am CDT (`0 9 * * 1`)

# congressional-trading

- Repo: `~/projects/congressional-trading` · https://github.com/jamesjlopez/congressional-trading
- Goal: Score congressional trade disclosures (0–13 scale) and push high-conviction buy signals via ntfy when score ≥ 9 + quality gates pass. In shadow/measurement mode — scoring and logging signals but not pushing live notifications yet.
- Stage: test
- Guard: autonomous-ok
- Metric: Signal precision (% of signals that are wins at 30/60d) over shadow period — threshold TBD by James
- Blocked on James: define exit criteria — what win-rate and sample size graduates it to live?
- Next action: James to review sweep findings and decide: (a) drop conviction gate LOW/MEDIUM? (b) raise threshold to 11.5? Then merge feat/agentic-alert-loop → main

## Notes
- 2026-07-06 — Seeded from git activity: "Keep shadow measurement active during..." (same-day commit). Runs on always-on machine.
- 2026-07-06 — Explored codebase: scoring algorithm is 0–13 scale with 8 components (committee, cluster, size, small-cap bonus, options bonus, sell pressure, strategic LLM score, disruption LLM score). Notification threshold = 9.0 after timeliness multiplier. Max 1 notification/run. 14k+ historical trades stored. `signal_outcomes` table tracks 30/60d returns. Key open issue: win-rate uses current price snapshot, not fixed-horizon (backlog item). Forward-looking predictor module also exists.
- 2026-07-06 — James approved agentic calibration approach: backtest first → data-derived thresholds → ongoing automated monitoring. Scoped as 3 phases below.

### Calibration task — 3 phases

**Phase 1: Fix win-rate calculation** ✅ DONE 2026-07-12
- Added `compute_fixed_horizon()` to `tools/win_rate.py`: uses `price_history` table (price at tx_date+30d vs tx_date) — stable classification, not today's rolling price
- `compute()` dispatches to fixed-horizon when `price_history` is populated; rolling fallback for fresh installs
- 8 TDD tests added to `tests/test_win_rate.py`, all GREEN
- Committed: `feat/agentic-alert-loop` — "fix(win_rate): use fixed-horizon returns instead of rolling price snapshot"

**Phase 2: Backtest sweep script** ✅ DONE 2026-07-12
- `scripts/backtest_sweep.py` added. Sweeps score threshold (7–13), conviction (LOW/MEDIUM/HIGH), edge-factor min (2/3/4).
- Quick mode: reads signal_outcomes (n=36, no price_history needed). Full mode: replays 7k+ trades from price_history.
- Quick mode ran: signals scored 10.8–14.5. Threshold 12.5+ improves precision 58%→67% and cuts max drawdown from -40.7% to -7.7%.
- **Price_history backfill needed for full sweep** (python scripts/backtest_sweep.py --backfill --csv results.csv) — yfinance not installed in container.
- Committed: `feat/agentic-alert-loop` — "feat(backtest): add threshold/conviction/edge sweep script"

**Phase 3: Backfill + full sweep** ✅ DONE 2026-07-12
- Batched yfinance backfill: 960k price rows across 1,378 tickers in 39s
- Ran full replay sweep: 6,493 trades, 15 months, 117 config combinations
- CSV saved to `data/backtest_sweep_2026-07-12.csv`
- **Key finding**: Current config (HIGH conviction, thresh=9.0, edge≥3) = 44% precision, -0.96% median excess vs SPY
- **Best config**: threshold=11.5, LOW conviction, edge≥2 → 54% precision, +0.67% median excess, 398 signals/year
- **Surprising**: HIGH conviction = WORSE performance. Unresearched signals at high base scores outperform LLM-tagged HIGH conviction ones — suggesting base score is more predictive than LLM overlay.
- Results sent to James via Slack 2026-07-12. Waiting for threshold decision to implement config changes.

**Phase 4: Ongoing automated outcome monitoring** (closes the loop)
- Schedule a weekly Nano task: read `signal_outcomes`, compute rolling 30/60d precision for last 10/20/all-time signals
- If precision drops below threshold: surface tuning suggestion to James via Telegram
- If precision is holding: brief weekly note in daily brief or silence
- Estimated effort: ~2 hours to set up scheduled task

-**Phase 4: Ongoing automated outcome monitoring** (closes the loop)

-- Schedule a weekly Nano task: read `signal_outcomes`, compute rolling 30/60d precision for last 10/20/all-time signals

-- If precision drops below threshold: surface tuning suggestion to James via Telegram

-- If precision is holding: brief weekly note in daily brief or silence

-- Estimated effort: ~2 hours to set up scheduled task

+**Phase 4: Ongoing automated outcome monitoring** ✅ DONE 2026-07-19

+- `/workspace/agent/congressional-monitor.py` — stdlib-only script querying `signal_outcomes`, computing 30d excess precision (last-10 / last-20 / all-time), outputting `{"wakeAgent": bool, "data": {...}}` for Nano task trigger

+- Alert threshold: 40% floor (`BREAKER_MIN_WIN_RATE`); sends ntfy push to `congressWatchSignals` topic on breach

+- Current precision: 58.3% all-time / 65.0% last-20 / 60.0% last-10 (all well above floor)

+- Scheduled weekly: task-1784500441752-hqopzy, Mondays 9am CDT (`0 9 * * 1`)


- Next action: James to review sweep findings and decide: (a) drop conviction gate LOW/MEDIUM? (b) raise threshold to 11.5? Then merge feat/agentic-alert-loop → main

- Next action: Await James's threshold decision (11.5/LOW/edge≥2 config); weekly precision monitor running (Mondays 9am CDT)


# congressional-trading

- Repo: `~/projects/congressional-trading` · https://github.com/jamesjlopez/congressional-trading
- Goal: Score congressional trade disclosures (0–13 scale) and push high-conviction buy signals via ntfy when score ≥ 9 + quality gates pass. In shadow/measurement mode — scoring and logging signals but not pushing live notifications yet.
- Stage: test
- Guard: autonomous-ok
- Metric: Signal precision (% of signals that are wins at 30/60d) over shadow period — threshold TBD by James
- Blocked on James: define exit criteria — what win-rate and sample size graduates it to live?
- Next action: James to review sweep findings and decide: (a) drop conviction gate LOW/MEDIUM? (b) raise threshold to 11.5? Then merge feat/agentic-alert-loop → main

## Notes
- 2026-07-06 — Seeded from git activity: "Keep shadow measurement active during..." (same-day commit). Runs on always-on machine.
- 2026-07-06 — Explored codebase: scoring algorithm is 0–13 scale with 8 components (committee, cluster, size, small-cap bonus, options bonus, sell pressure, strategic LLM score, disruption LLM score). Notification threshold = 9.0 after timeliness multiplier. Max 1 notification/run. 14k+ historical trades stored. `signal_outcomes` table tracks 30/60d returns. Key open issue: win-rate uses current price snapshot, not fixed-horizon (backlog item). Forward-looking predictor module also exists.
- 2026-07-06 — James approved agentic calibration approach: backtest first → data-derived thresholds → ongoing automated monitoring. Scoped as 3 phases below.

### Calibration task — 3 phases

**Phase 1: Fix win-rate calculation** ✅ DONE 2026-07-12
- Added `compute_fixed_horizon()` to `tools/win_rate.py`: uses `price_history` table (price at tx_date+30d vs tx_date) — stable classification, not today's rolling price
- `compute()` dispatches to fixed-horizon when `price_history` is populated; rolling fallback for fresh installs
- 8 TDD tests added to `tests/test_win_rate.py`, all GREEN
- Committed: `feat/agentic-alert-loop` — "fix(win_rate): use fixed-horizon returns instead of rolling price snapshot"

**Phase 2: Backtest sweep script** ✅ DONE 2026-07-12
- `scripts/backtest_sweep.py` added. Sweeps score threshold (7–13), conviction (LOW/MEDIUM/HIGH), edge-factor min (2/3/4).
- Quick mode: reads signal_outcomes (n=36, no price_history needed). Full mode: replays 7k+ trades from price_history.
- Quick mode ran: signals scored 10.8–14.5. Threshold 12.5+ improves precision 58%→67% and cuts max drawdown from -40.7% to -7.7%.
- **Price_history backfill needed for full sweep** (python scripts/backtest_sweep.py --backfill --csv results.csv) — yfinance not installed in container.
- Committed: `feat/agentic-alert-loop` — "feat(backtest): add threshold/conviction/edge sweep script"

**Phase 3: Backfill + full sweep** ✅ DONE 2026-07-12
- Batched yfinance backfill: 960k price rows across 1,378 tickers in 39s
- Ran full replay sweep: 6,493 trades, 15 months, 117 config combinations
- CSV saved to `data/backtest_sweep_2026-07-12.csv`
- **Key finding**: Current config (HIGH conviction, thresh=9.0, edge≥3) = 44% precision, -0.96% median excess vs SPY
- **Best config**: threshold=11.5, LOW conviction, edge≥2 → 54% precision, +0.67% median excess, 398 signals/year
- **Surprising**: HIGH conviction = WORSE performance. Unresearched signals at high base scores outperform LLM-tagged HIGH conviction ones — suggesting base score is more predictive than LLM overlay.
- Results sent to James via Slack 2026-07-12. Waiting for threshold decision to implement config changes.

**Phase 4: Ongoing automated outcome monitoring** ✅ DONE 2026-07-19
- `/workspace/agent/congressional-monitor.py` — stdlib-only script querying `signal_outcomes`, computing 30d excess precision (last-10 / last-20 / all-time), outputting `{"wakeAgent": bool, "data": {...}}` for Nano task trigger
- Alert threshold: 40% floor (`BREAKER_MIN_WIN_RATE`); sends ntfy push to `congressWatchSignals` topic on breach
- Current precision: 58.3% all-time / 65.0% last-20 / 60.0% last-10 (all well above floor)
- Scheduled weekly: task-1784500441752-hqopzy, Mondays 9am CDT (`0 9 * * 1`)

-- Next action: James to review sweep findings and decide: (a) drop conviction gate LOW/MEDIUM? (b) raise threshold to 11.5? Then merge feat/agentic-alert-loop → main

+- Next action: Await James's threshold decision (11.5/LOW/edge≥2 config); weekly precision monitor running (Mondays 9am CDT)


| [congressional-trading](projects/congressional-trading.md) | test | autonomous-ok | James to pick thresholds from sweep results → merge to main | threshold decision | 2026-07-12 |

| [congressional-trading](projects/congressional-trading.md) | test | autonomous-ok | Await threshold decision; weekly precision monitor running (Mondays 9am) | threshold decision | 2026-07-19 |


The file /workspace/extra/second-brain/portfolio/BOARD.md has been updated successfully. (file state is current in your context — no need to Read it back)

# Portfolio Board

One row per active project. Cards with full detail live in `projects/`.
Operating model + decisions: [PLAN.md](PLAN.md).
Stages: `research → discovery → spec → build → test → feedback → maintain`.
Guard: `review-required` (James approves merges) or `autonomous-ok` (agents proceed, report after).

**Seeded 2026-07-06 from git activity — stages and next actions are drafts until James confirms.**

| Project | Stage | Guard | Next action | Blocked on James | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| [portfolio-autopilot](projects/portfolio-autopilot.md) | build | autonomous-ok | Monitor headroom log; calibration surfaces reserve suggestions after 5+ snapshots | none | 2026-07-12 |
| [qip-qien](projects/qip-qien.md) | feedback | review-required | SEV-1 fix committed (ee84254); merge sign-off needed | merge approval | 2026-07-19 |
| [congressional-trading](projects/congressional-trading.md) | test | autonomous-ok | James to pick thresholds from sweep results → merge to main | threshold decision | 2026-07-12 |
| [FindRefurbishedAppleProduct](projects/FindRefurbishedAppleProduct.md) | discovery | autonomous-ok | Confirm goal — brand new repo | confirm card | 2026-07-06 |
| [TradingBot25](projects/TradingBot25.md) | build | review-required | Confirm goal + current strategy state | confirm card | 2026-06-26 |
| [AgenticLever](projects/AgenticLever.md) | build | autonomous-ok | Confirm goal | confirm card | 2026-06-29 |
| [pool-monitor](projects/pool-monitor.md) | maintain | autonomous-ok | None — steady state? confirm | confirm card | 2026-06-17 |
| [StageHand](projects/StageHand.md) | discovery | autonomous-ok | Await James answers on 5 toolchain questions; Local Recs next if green-lit | voice, agent, posting, pricing, Local Recs y/n | 2026-07-09 |
| [MentorCore](projects/MentorCore.md) | research | autonomous-ok | Parked — no bandwidth | none | 2026-06-11 |
| [RoadSense](projects/RoadSense.md) | spec | autonomous-ok | Answer 5 launch questions → unblock implementation | auth model, city, GIS license, creator posture, metric | 2026-07-08 |
| [nanoclaw](projects/nanoclaw.md) | build | autonomous-ok | Answer 3 push()-fix design questions → implement | design questions, deploy, metric | 2026-07-19 |
| [projects-monorepo-infra](projects/projects-monorepo-infra.md) | build | review-required | Name the token-spend-avoided metric | metric decision | 2026-07-16 |
| cortex *(no card yet)* | maintain | review-required | Decide: fill Reddit OAuth creds, or drop Reddit ingest (project's own docs call the API "increasingly restrictive") | Reddit creds / keep-or-drop call | 2026-07-12 |
| CodexBar *(no card yet)* | maintain | review-required | Decide upstream-sync strategy (1056 commits behind steipete/CodexBar); scrub steipete paths/bundle-ID from docs | sync strategy | 2026-07-12 |
| CodexBarLocal *(no card yet)* | maintain | review-required | 34 uncommitted changes incl. a stray Xcode scaffold — commit, stash, or discard | commit/stash/discard call | 2026-07-12 |
| CodexBar-ESP32 *(no card yet)* | maintain | autonomous-ok | None right now — mDNS doc gap fixed today; 3 minor observations items open (untested pace-formula dup, lock-ordering) | none | 2026-07-12 |
| localsky_radar *(no card yet)* | build | review-required | `git init` + first commit (2,227 lines, zero version control); rewrite CLAUDE.md (wrongly claims unimplemented) | confirm git-init | 2026-07-12 |

## Decision queue

Questions for James, appended by Nano; answered items move to the card's Notes and are removed here.

- **nanoclaw metric:** Proposed metric = "decisions James answers per week from daily brief" (proxy for brief usefulness). Confirm or rename? (Card currently undefined.)
- **RoadSense launch questions (5):** auth model, generalization city, GIS license, creator posture, 30-day success metric. Sent via Telegram 2026-07-08.
- **congressional-trading dual-poller (2026-07-12):** `com.congresswatch.daily` launchd job confirmed loaded on *both* the Mac Mini and this Studio simultaneously — doubles LLM spend and races notification cooldowns. Project's own `agentic_plan.md` already flags this as unresolved. Which machine is authoritative?
- **qip-ask-qien SEV-1 merge (2026-07-19):** fix committed (ee84254) — admin route guards changed from `requireExpertApiUser` → `requireAdminApiUser` on 4 routes. TypeScript + lint clean. Ready to merge; needs James's sign-off to push.
- **nanoclaw push() fix design (2026-07-19):** REST pending queue design sent to James (#infrastructure). 3 questions: (1) follow-up-turn UX acceptable? (2) Claude rung also drain restPendingQueue as safety net? (3) green-light tests alongside fix?

## Recently shipped

- **Portfolio audit** 2026-07-12 — parallel survey across 20 projects; auto-fixed 10 AGENTS.md/CLAUDE.md symmetry gaps, an mDNS doc gap (CodexBar-ESP32), a stale phase claim (MentorCore), a wrong-hostname ntfy-link bug (pool-monitor, verified via 76 passing tests), a test-isolation gap (AgenticLever, verified via 32 passing tests), and this file's own Tailscale hostname drift.
- **nanoclaw** 2026-07-08 — fix(router): mention-sticky Slack session scoping committed

-| [congressional-trading](projects/congressional-trading.md) | test | autonomous-ok | James to pick thresholds from sweep results → merge to main | threshold decision | 2026-07-12 |

+| [congressional-trading](projects/congressional-trading.md) | test | autonomous-ok | Await threshold decision; weekly precision monitor running (Mondays 9am) | threshold decision | 2026-07-19 |


Bash

echo '{"timestamp":"2026-07-19T23:00:00.000Z","tier":"high","burnable_pct":63.5,"project":"congressional-trading","task_type":"continuation","model_used":"claude-sonnet","outcome":"completed","notes":"Phase 4 complete: built /workspace/agent/congressional-monitor.py (stdlib-only, queries signal_outcomes, 30d excess precision last-10/20/all, wakeAgent JSON output). Scheduled weekly task-1784500441752-hqopzy Mondays 9am CDT. Current precision: 58.3% all / 65.0% last-20 / 60.0% last-10, all above 40% floor."}' >> /workspace/agent/autopilot-run-log.jsonl && echo "done"

Append cycle 3 entry to autopilot-run-log.jsonl


done


<message to="slack-infrastructure">**congressional-trading Phase 4 — done** (autopilot cycle 3, high tier)

`/workspace/agent/congressional-monitor.py` is live — queries `signal_outcomes`, computes 30d excess precision (last-10/last-20/all-time), outputs Nano task JSON. Scheduled weekly Mondays 9am CDT (task-1784500441752-hqopzy).

Current read: 36 settled signals · 58.3% all-time · 65.0% last-20 · **60.0% last-10** · floor 40% → no alert.

Still waiting on you for: (1) threshold decision — merge 11.5/LOW/edge≥2 config to main? (2) dual-poller — Mini or Studio as authoritative machine? (3) qip-qien ee84254 merge sign-off.</message>

<message to="telegram-mg-17796">Three autopilot cycles wrapped for tonight:

**1. qip-qien** — SEV-1 auth fix committed (ee84254). Admin routes now guard `admin`-only. Needs your merge sign-off before push.

**2. nanoclaw** — Designed `restPendingQueue` fix for the push() silent-drop bug on REST rungs (LM Studio/Codex). Plan + red-team sent to #infrastructure. 3 questions pending: (1) follow-up-turn UX ok? (2) Claude rung also drain queue as safety net? (3) green-light tests alongside fix?

**3. congressional-trading** — Phase 4 done. Weekly precision monitor scheduled (Mondays 9am). Current: 60% last-10, well above 40% floor. Still need your threshold call (11.5/LOW/edge≥2 → merge to main?).</message>


<context timezone="America/Chicago" />
<message id="2794" from="telegram-mg-17796" sender="James Lopez" time="Jul 19, 2026, 5:37 PM">https://x.com/omarsar0/status/2078573267015885136?s=52

Ooh this looks potentially helpful
<link_ingestion source="twitter" url="https://x.com/omarsar0/status/2078573267015885136" canonical_url="https://x.com/omarsar0/status/2078573267015885136" status="failed" kind="unknown"><error>Command failed: ffmpeg -y -i /var/folders/c1/xpmf9vrn3r7bywm7cvsmhd980000gn/T/nanoclaw-twitter-ingestion/job-p2Gwg4/media.mp4 -vn -ac 1 -ar 16000 -b:a 32k /var/folders/c1/xpmf9vrn3r7bywm7cvsmhd980000gn/T/nanoclaw-twitter-ingestion/job-p2Gwg4/audio.mp3
ffmpeg version 8.1.2 Copyright (c) 2000-2026 the FFmpeg developers
  built with Apple clang version 21.0.0 (clang-2100.0.123.102)
  configuration: --prefix=/opt/homebrew/Cellar/ffmpeg/8.1.2 --enable-shared --enable-pthreads --enable-version3 --cc=clang --host-cflags= --host-ldflags= --enable-ffplay --enable-gpl --enable-libsvtav1 --enable-libopus --enable-libx264 --enable-libmp3lame --enable-libdav1d --enable-libvmaf --enable-libvpx --enable-libx265 --enable-openssl --enable-videotoolbox --enable-audiotoolbox --enable-neon
  libavutil      60. 26.102 / 60. 26.102
  libavcodec     62. 28.102 / 62. 28.102
  libavformat    62. 12.102 / 62. 12.102
  libavdevice    62.  3.102 / 62.  3.102
  libavfilter    11. 14.102 / 11. 14.102
  libswscale      9.  5.102 /  9.  5.102
  libswresample   6.  3.102 /  6.  3.102
Input #0, mov,mp4,m4a,3gp,3g2,mj2, from '/var/folders/c1/xpmf9vrn3r7bywm7cvsmhd980000gn/T/nanoclaw-twitter-ingestion/job-p2Gwg4/media.mp4':
  Metadata:
    major_brand     : isom
    minor_version   : 1
    compatible_brands: isomiso4
    creation_time   : 2026-07-18T20:10:59.000000Z
  Duration: 00:00:10.60, start: 0.000000, bitrate: 11787 kb/s
  Stream #0:0[0x1](und): Video: h264 (High) (avc1 / 0x31637661), yuv420p(progressive), 3760x2160, 11779 kb/s, SAR 1:1 DAR 47:27, 60 fps, 60 tbr, 5760k tbn (default)
    Metadata:
      handler_name    : Twitter-vork muxer
Output #0, mp3, to '/var/folders/c1/xpmf9vrn3r7bywm7cvsmhd980000gn/T/nanoclaw-twitter-ingestion/job-p2Gwg4/audio.mp3':
[out#0/mp3 @ 0x779b050180] Output file does not contain any stream
Error opening output file /var/folders/c1/xpmf9vrn3r7bywm7cvsmhd980000gn/T/nanoclaw-twitter-ingestion/job-p2Gwg4/audio.mp3.
Error opening output files: Invalid argument
</error></link_ingestion></message>


James shared a Twitter/X link and the automatic link ingestion failed because the video has no audio stream - it's a video-only file (no audio track detected by ffmpeg). The tweet is from @omarsar0 (Elvis Saravia - known AI researcher/educator). Let me try to fetch the tweet content directly to understand what it's about.

The ingestion failed because ffmpeg tried to extract audio from what appears to be a video-only stream (no audio track in the mp4). The error says "Output file does not contain any stream" which means there was no audio track to extract.

Let me use the Twitter MCP tool to get the tweet details so I can tell James what it's about.


Sharing my new skill!

It keeps track of high-signal X accounts for top AI news, papers, projects, etc.

Total gamechanger for me.

Built with X MCP tools. Give your agent the skill and tell it to generate the artifact with top stories.

Works for Codex, Claude, Hermes, OpenClaw, or whatever you use.

3 steps:

1. Set up X MCP - X API: https://t.co/REb86f4K1q

2. Install skill here: https://t.co/cODGD5sOxu

3. Run prompt: "Use the x-agent-intelligence skill to build a self-contained local feed from my X MCP connection; ask for my source handles if needed, save feed.html, and validate it."

It should generate a nice, beautiful HTML artifact like the one shown in the clip. You can tune it however you want.

You can then set a schedule/automation to do this daily or whatever cadence you prefer. I have it every 4 hours.

You will need to curate the X accounts yourself, but I have shared a few good ones under the assets.

You can ask your agent to tune it to however you like.

I have also shared my personal feed with our community here: https://t.co/tnMkBvOtXP

I understand if it gets tricky to set up. Please reach out to me in the community forum. I plan to do a little tutorial or live session soon to help others reproduce the process.

You can also store the feed as a wiki, as I have in my own implementation, but that's optional.

If you encounter any issues or have ideas on how to improve it, please open a PR.

elvis

Building self-improving AI @dair_ai • Prev: Meta AI | PhD • Learn about AI Agents for FREE here: https://t.co/P5SA9u54xO


This is interesting! Elvis (omarsar0) from DAIR.AI shared a new skill called "x-agent-intelligence" that:

1. Uses X MCP tools to track high-signal X accounts for AI news/papers/projects
2. Generates a beautiful HTML feed artifact showing top stories
3. Works with Codex, Claude, Hermes, OpenClaw, or whatever agent you use
4. Can be scheduled (he runs it every 4 hours)

The video had no audio - it's a screen recording demo of the HTML artifact, hence ffmpeg found no audio stream.

This is very relevant to Nano/James's setup because:
We already have X MCP tools installed, so this could fill the gap left by the dropped X monitoring task. The skill generates a self-contained HTML artifact from curated accounts, which seems like exactly what James needs. Though there's a discrepancy in the notes—they say James doesn't want to pay for the $100/mo Twitter API tier, but we just successfully fetched a tweet, so either the X MCP tools are already connected or there's something I'm missing about the current setup. The skill reads curated X accounts and generates an HTML feed artifact that can be stored as a wiki entry—it's installable and schedulable, which fits perfectly with what we already have set up. The video ingestion failed because it's a silent screen recording with no audio track, which is a bug in the ffmpeg pipeline that expects audio. I should explain this to James along with what the tweet actually describes and how it could work for generating a daily AI news digest in Nano.


<message to="telegram-mg-17796">**@omarsar0's x-agent-intelligence skill** — here's what the tweet says (video was silent screen recording, so the audio ingestion pipeline errored out trying to find an audio track — minor pipeline bug, not a connectivity issue):

Elvis at DAIR.AI built a skill that:
- Tracks a curated list of high-signal X accounts for AI news/papers/projects
- Generates a self-contained `feed.html` artifact (beautiful HTML dashboard of top stories)
- Works with Claude Code, Codex, Hermes, OpenClaw, etc.
- Can run on a schedule (he runs it every 4 hours)
- Optionally stores the feed as a wiki page

Setup: (1) connect X MCP, (2) install the skill, (3) run one prompt → done. He's shared his personal curation list under `assets/` in the skill repo.

**Relevant to your setup:** we already have X MCP tools wired up here (just used them to fetch this tweet). If you want, I could install the skill and wire up a daily AI digest → your second-brain wiki. The curation step is on you (picking which accounts to track), but once that list is set it runs autonomously.

Skill repo link is in the tweet: https://t.co/cODGD5sOxu — want me to pull it and install it?</message>


<context timezone="America/Chicago" />
<message id="2796" from="telegram-mg-17796" sender="James Lopez" time="Jul 19, 2026, 5:41 PM">https://x.com/simplifyinai/status/2078785602250797295?s=52 ooh cool
<link_ingestion source="twitter" url="https://x.com/simplifyinai/status/2078785602250797295" canonical_url="https://x.com/simplifyinai/status/2078785602250797295" status="failed" kind="unknown"><error>Command failed: ffmpeg -y -i /var/folders/c1/xpmf9vrn3r7bywm7cvsmhd980000gn/T/nanoclaw-twitter-ingestion/job-x4cKjE/media.mp4 -vn -ac 1 -ar 16000 -b:a 32k /var/folders/c1/xpmf9vrn3r7bywm7cvsmhd980000gn/T/nanoclaw-twitter-ingestion/job-x4cKjE/audio.mp3
ffmpeg version 8.1.2 Copyright (c) 2000-2026 the FFmpeg developers
  built with Apple clang version 21.0.0 (clang-2100.0.123.102)
  configuration: --prefix=/opt/homebrew/Cellar/ffmpeg/8.1.2 --enable-shared --enable-pthreads --enable-version3 --cc=clang --host-cflags= --host-ldflags= --enable-ffplay --enable-gpl --enable-libsvtav1 --enable-libopus --enable-libx264 --enable-libmp3lame --enable-libdav1d --enable-libvmaf --enable-libvpx --enable-libx265 --enable-openssl --enable-videotoolbox --enable-audiotoolbox --enable-neon
  libavutil      60. 26.102 / 60. 26.102
  libavcodec     62. 28.102 / 62. 28.102
  libavformat    62. 12.102 / 62. 12.102
  libavdevice    62.  3.102 / 62.  3.102
  libavfilter    11. 14.102 / 11. 14.102
  libswscale      9.  5.102 /  9.  5.102
  libswresample   6.  3.102 /  6.  3.102
Input #0, mov,mp4,m4a,3gp,3g2,mj2, from '/var/folders/c1/xpmf9vrn3r7bywm7cvsmhd980000gn/T/nanoclaw-twitter-ingestion/job-x4cKjE/media.mp4':
  Metadata:
    major_brand     : isom
    minor_version   : 1
    compatible_brands: isomiso4
    creation_time   : 2026-07-19T10:15:22.000000Z
  Duration: 00:00:12.27, start: 0.000000, bitrate: 2816 kb/s
  Stream #0:0[0x1](und): Video: h264 (High) (avc1 / 0x31637661), yuv420p(progressive), 2160x3214, 2807 kb/s, SAR 1:1 DAR 1080:1607, 60 fps, 60 tbr, 1536k tbn (default)
    Metadata:
      handler_name    : Twitter-vork muxer
Output #0, mp3, to '/var/folders/c1/xpmf9vrn3r7bywm7cvsmhd980000gn/T/nanoclaw-twitter-ingestion/job-x4cKjE/audio.mp3':
[out#0/mp3 @ 0x74e2c08600] Output file does not contain any stream
Error opening output file /var/folders/c1/xpmf9vrn3r7bywm7cvsmhd980000gn/T/nanoclaw-twitter-ingestion/job-x4cKjE/audio.mp3.
Error opening output files: Invalid argument
</error></link_ingestion></message>


Another silent screen-recording video. Let me fetch this tweet to see what it's about.


You waste hours downloading models that don't run on your hardware. This tool fixes that in one command.

It's called llmfit.

It scans your RAM, CPU, and GPU, then scores every model in its catalog for fit, speed, and quality, so you know what runs before you download anything.

→ Detects MoE architectures correctly, most tools treat them as dense and get it wrong
→ Recommends the best quantization for your exact hardware
→ Covers hundreds of models across dozens of providers

100% Free. Open Source.

Simplifying AI

Helping you master AI daily with step-by-step AI guides, latest news & practical tools • DM for Collabs


This tweet is about **llmfit** - a tool that scans your hardware (RAM, CPU, GPU) and scores local models for fit/speed/quality before you download them. It correctly handles MoE architectures and recommends optimal quantization. Free and open source.

This is directly relevant to James's setup because:
1. He has LM Studio running on his Mac Studio (48GB RAM, 16 cores, Apple Silicon)
2. He regularly runs local models
3. The "best quantization for your exact hardware" feature is exactly what he'd need when picking models for local compute tasks

Let me tell James what this is about.
The video is a silent screen recording, so I'm hitting the same ffmpeg issue. But llmfit is genuinely useful for his local compute setup—I should mention it and note how it could help him pick the right model for autopilot tasks.


<message to="telegram-mg-17796">**llmfit** — same issue, silent screen recording.

Tool that scans your RAM/CPU/GPU and scores every model in its catalog for fit/speed/quality *before you download anything*. Key bits:

- Correctly handles MoE architectures (most tools treat them as dense and wildly overestimate RAM)
- Recommends best quantization level for your exact hardware
- Covers hundreds of models across dozens of providers
- Free, open source

Direct applicability to your Mac Studio (48GB RAM, Apple Silicon): useful when picking which LM Studio model to run for local autopilot tasks. Worth bookmarking for next time you're evaluating a new local model. I can search for the repo if you want the install command.</message>


<context timezone="America/Chicago" />
<task from="telegram-mg-17796" time="Jul 19, 2026, 10:30 PM">Script output:
{
  "burnable_pct": 41,
  "tier": "medium",
  "implementationModel": "claude-sonnet",
  "eligibleProjects": [
    {
      "project": "StageHand",
      "priority": "P1"
    },
    {
      "project": "nanoclaw",
      "priority": "P1"
    },
    {
      "project": "AgenticLever",
      "priority": "P2"
    },
    {
      "project": "RoadSense",
      "priority": "P2"
    },
    {
      "project": "qip-qien",
      "priority": "P2"
    }
  ],
  "next_reset_at": "2026-07-20T02:59:59.773Z",
  "providerSnapshot": [
    {
      "name": "Claude",
      "tracked": true,
      "5h_remaining_pct": 61,
      "7d_remaining_pct": 89
    },
    {
      "name": "Codex",
      "tracked": true,
      "5h_remaining_pct": null,
      "7d_remaining_pct": 88
    },
    {
      "name": "Gemini",
      "tracked": false,
      "note": "$20/mo subscription — no CodexBar tracking, manually updated from gemini.google.com/usage"
    },
    {
      "name": "LM Studio",
      "tracked": false,
      "note": "local model server — always-available when running at lm_studio_url"
    }
  ],
  "claude_windows": {
    "5h": {
      "remaining_pct": 61,
      "resets_in_sec": 14386
    },
    "7d": {
      "remaining_pct": 89,
      "resets_in_sec": 511186
    }
  }
}

Instructions:
Portfolio Autopilot run triggered. Trigger script has confirmed burnable quota and eligible projects exist.

Script `data` contains:
- `burnable_pct`: effective burnable quota (%)
- `tier`: quota tier (minimal/low/medium/high)
- `implementationModel`: model for implementation tasks
- `eligibleProjects`: [{project, priority}] sorted by priority — P1 first
- `next_reset_at`: ISO timestamp when the constraining window resets
- `providerSnapshot`: remaining % for all providers (Claude + Codex) for context
- `claude_windows`: { "5h": { remaining_pct, resets_in_sec }, "7d": { ... } }

## Your job this cycle

1. Read `/workspace/extra/second-brain/portfolio/BOARD.md` and the relevant `projects/*.md` cards for eligible projects.

2. Pick ONE unit of work — the highest-priority eligible project with a clear, actionable `Next action`. Skip anything where `Next action` is "confirm with James" or blocked on external input.

3. Determine task type and proceed accordingly:
   - **Greenfield** (new plan, new feature direction, new project direction): Plan only → auto red-team → send package (plan + critique + numbered open questions) to James via Slack (`slack-infrastructure`). Do NOT start implementation.
   - **Continuation** (`autonomous-ok` guard, clear next action): Implement directly. Report outcome to James after.
   - **review-required** (TradingBot25, qip-qien): Produce change + summary, send to James via Slack (`slack-infrastructure`) for merge approval.

4. Planning always uses Claude Sonnet regardless of `implementationModel`. Implementation uses whatever `implementationModel` says.

5. After completing work:
   - Update the project card's `Next action` and append a dated line to its `Notes`.
   - Update the `Last activity` date in `BOARD.md`.
   - Send James a brief 2–3 line outcome note to `slack-infrastructure`. Use Central Time (America/Chicago) for any timestamps — never UTC.
   - Log the run to `/workspace/agent/autopilot-run-log.jsonl` — one JSON line: `{ timestamp, tier, burnable_pct, project, task_type, model_used, outcome, notes }`.

6. **Schedule the next reset-wake**: After completing work, call `mcp__nanoclaw__schedule_task` with:
   - `processAfter`: the `next_reset_at` value from the trigger data (the exact window reset time)
   - `recurrence`: omit (one-shot)
   - `prompt`: "Portfolio Autopilot reset-wake: check quota and run one autopilot cycle. Read /workspace/agent/autopilot-config.json for context. Run node /workspace/agent/autopilot.mjs to see current state, then proceed as the autopilot prompt instructs."
   - `script`: `node /workspace/agent/autopilot-trigger.mjs 2>/dev/null`
   This ensures the next cycle starts exactly when the window resets, not up to 30 min later.

If no eligible project has a clear actionable next step, log it and send a brief note to `slack-infrastructure`: what's stalled and why. Use Central Time for any times mentioned.

Config at `/workspace/agent/autopilot-config.json` — thresholds and priorities live there.</task>


Let me read the BOARD.md and relevant project cards to determine what to work on this cycle. The eligible projects are:
- StageHand (P1)
- nanoclaw (P1)
- AgenticLever (P2)
- RoadSense (P2)
- qip-qien (P2)

Tier is "medium" with 41% burnable. Let me read the board and project cards.

From the summary I already know:
- StageHand: P1, blocked on James answers to 5 toolchain questions + Supertonic TTS integration
- nanoclaw: P1, blocked on 3 design questions James needs to answer
- AgenticLever: P2, autonomous-ok
- RoadSense: P2, autonomous-ok
- qip-qien: P2, review-required, awaiting merge

Let me check the current state of BOARD.md and the relevant cards to confirm what's actually available to work on.


1	# Portfolio Board
2
3	One row per active project. Cards with full detail live in `projects/`.
4	Operating model + decisions: [PLAN.md](PLAN.md).
5	Stages: `research → discovery → spec → build → test → feedback → maintain`.
6	Guard: `review-required` (James approves merges) or `autonomous-ok` (agents proceed, report after).
7
8	**Seeded 2026-07-06 from git activity — stages and next actions are drafts until James confirms.**
9
10	| Project | Stage | Guard | Next action | Blocked on James | Last activity |
11	|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12	| [portfolio-autopilot](projects/portfolio-autopilot.md) | build | autonomous-ok | Monitor headroom log; calibration surfaces reserve suggestions after 5+ snapshots | none | 2026-07-12 |
13	| [qip-qien](projects/qip-qien.md) | feedback | review-required | SEV-1 fix committed (ee84254); merge sign-off needed | merge approval | 2026-07-19 |
14	| [congressional-trading](projects/congressional-trading.md) | test | autonomous-ok | Await threshold decision; weekly precision monitor running (Mondays 9am) | threshold decision | 2026-07-19 |
15	| [FindRefurbishedAppleProduct](projects/FindRefurbishedAppleProduct.md) | discovery | autonomous-ok | Confirm goal — brand new repo | confirm card | 2026-07-06 |
16	| [TradingBot25](projects/TradingBot25.md) | build | review-required | Confirm goal + current strategy state | confirm card | 2026-06-26 |
17	| [AgenticLever](projects/AgenticLever.md) | build | autonomous-ok | Confirm goal | confirm card | 2026-06-29 |
18	| [pool-monitor](projects/pool-monitor.md) | maintain | autonomous-ok | None — steady state? confirm | confirm card | 2026-06-17 |
19	| [StageHand](projects/StageHand.md) | discovery | autonomous-ok | Await James answers on 5 toolchain questions; Local Recs next if green-lit | voice, agent, posting, pricing, Local Recs y/n | 2026-07-09 |
20	| [MentorCore](projects/MentorCore.md) | research | autonomous-ok | Parked — no bandwidth | none | 2026-06-11 |
21	| [RoadSense](projects/RoadSense.md) | spec | autonomous-ok | Answer 5 launch questions → unblock implementation | auth model, city, GIS license, creator posture, metric | 2026-07-08 |
22	| [nanoclaw](projects/nanoclaw.md) | build | autonomous-ok | Answer 3 push()-fix design questions → implement | design questions, deploy, metric | 2026-07-19 |
23	| [projects-monorepo-infra](projects/projects-monorepo-infra.md) | build | review-required | Name the token-spend-avoided metric | metric decision | 2026-07-16 |
24	| cortex *(no card yet)* | maintain | review-required | Decide: fill Reddit OAuth creds, or drop Reddit ingest (project's own docs call the API "increasingly restrictive") | Reddit creds / keep-or-drop call | 2026-07-12 |
25	| CodexBar *(no card yet)* | maintain | review-required | Decide upstream-sync strategy (1056 commits behind steipete/CodexBar); scrub steipete paths/bundle-ID from docs | sync strategy | 2026-07-12 |
26	| CodexBarLocal *(no card yet)* | maintain | review-required | 34 uncommitted changes incl. a stray Xcode scaffold — commit, stash, or discard | commit/stash/discard call | 2026-07-12 |
27	| CodexBar-ESP32 *(no card yet)* | maintain | autonomous-ok | None right now — mDNS doc gap fixed today; 3 minor observations items open (untested pace-formula dup, lock-ordering) | none | 2026-07-12 |
28	| localsky_radar *(no card yet)* | build | review-required | `git init` + first commit (2,227 lines, zero version control); rewrite CLAUDE.md (wrongly claims unimplemented) | confirm git-init | 2026-07-12 |
29
30	## Decision queue
31
32	Questions for James, appended by Nano; answered items move to the card's Notes and are removed here.
33
34	- **nanoclaw metric:** Proposed metric = "decisions James answers per week from daily brief" (proxy for brief usefulness). Confirm or rename? (Card currently undefined.)
35	- **RoadSense launch questions (5):** auth model, generalization city, GIS license, creator posture, 30-day success metric. Sent via Telegram 2026-07-08.
36	- **congressional-trading dual-poller (2026-07-12):** `com.congresswatch.daily` launchd job confirmed loaded on *both* the Mac Mini and this Studio simultaneously — doubles LLM spend and races notification cooldowns. Project's own `agentic_plan.md` already flags this as unresolved. Which machine is authoritative?
37	- **qip-ask-qien SEV-1 merge (2026-07-19):** fix committed (ee84254) — admin route guards changed from `requireExpertApiUser` → `requireAdminApiUser` on 4 routes. TypeScript + lint clean. Ready to merge; needs James's sign-off to push.
38	- **nanoclaw push() fix design (2026-07-19):** REST pending queue design sent to James (#infrastructure). 3 questions: (1) follow-up-turn UX acceptable? (2) Claude rung also drain restPendingQueue as safety net? (3) green-light tests alongside fix?
39
40	## Recently shipped
41
42	- **Portfolio audit** 2026-07-12 — parallel survey across 20 projects; auto-fixed 10 AGENTS.md/CLAUDE.md symmetry gaps, an mDNS doc gap (CodexBar-ESP32), a stale phase claim (MentorCore), a wrong-hostname ntfy-link bug (pool-monitor, verified via 76 passing tests), a test-isolation gap (AgenticLever, verified via 32 passing tests), and this file's own Tailscale hostname drift.
43	- **nanoclaw** 2026-07-08 — fix(router): mention-sticky Slack session scoping committed
44

# Portfolio Board

One row per active project. Cards with full detail live in `projects/`.
Operating model + decisions: [PLAN.md](PLAN.md).
Stages: `research → discovery → spec → build → test → feedback → maintain`.
Guard: `review-required` (James approves merges) or `autonomous-ok` (agents proceed, report after).

**Seeded 2026-07-06 from git activity — stages and next actions are drafts until James confirms.**

| Project | Stage | Guard | Next action | Blocked on James | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| [portfolio-autopilot](projects/portfolio-autopilot.md) | build | autonomous-ok | Monitor headroom log; calibration surfaces reserve suggestions after 5+ snapshots | none | 2026-07-12 |
| [qip-qien](projects/qip-qien.md) | feedback | review-required | SEV-1 fix committed (ee84254); merge sign-off needed | merge approval | 2026-07-19 |
| [congressional-trading](projects/congressional-trading.md) | test | autonomous-ok | Await threshold decision; weekly precision monitor running (Mondays 9am) | threshold decision | 2026-07-19 |
| [FindRefurbishedAppleProduct](projects/FindRefurbishedAppleProduct.md) | discovery | autonomous-ok | Confirm goal — brand new repo | confirm card | 2026-07-06 |
| [TradingBot25](projects/TradingBot25.md) | build | review-required | Confirm goal + current strategy state | confirm card | 2026-06-26 |
| [AgenticLever](projects/AgenticLever.md) | build | autonomous-ok | Confirm goal | confirm card | 2026-06-29 |
| [pool-monitor](projects/pool-monitor.md) | maintain | autonomous-ok | None — steady state? confirm | confirm card | 2026-06-17 |
| [StageHand](projects/StageHand.md) | discovery | autonomous-ok | Await James answers on 5 toolchain questions; Local Recs next if green-lit | voice, agent, posting, pricing, Local Recs y/n | 2026-07-09 |
| [MentorCore](projects/MentorCore.md) | research | autonomous-ok | Parked — no bandwidth | none | 2026-06-11 |
| [RoadSense](projects/RoadSense.md) | spec | autonomous-ok | Answer 5 launch questions → unblock implementation | auth model, city, GIS license, creator posture, metric | 2026-07-08 |
| [nanoclaw](projects/nanoclaw.md) | build | autonomous-ok | Answer 3 push()-fix design questions → implement | design questions, deploy, metric | 2026-07-19 |
| [projects-monorepo-infra](projects/projects-monorepo-infra.md) | build | review-required | Name the token-spend-avoided metric | metric decision | 2026-07-16 |
| cortex *(no card yet)* | maintain | review-required | Decide: fill Reddit OAuth creds, or drop Reddit ingest (project's own docs call the API "increasingly restrictive") | Reddit creds / keep-or-drop call | 2026-07-12 |
| CodexBar *(no card yet)* | maintain | review-required | Decide upstream-sync strategy (1056 commits behind steipete/CodexBar); scrub steipete paths/bundle-ID from docs | sync strategy | 2026-07-12 |
| CodexBarLocal *(no card yet)* | maintain | review-required | 34 uncommitted changes incl. a stray Xcode scaffold — commit, stash, or discard | commit/stash/discard call | 2026-07-12 |
| CodexBar-ESP32 *(no card yet)* | maintain | autonomous-ok | None right now — mDNS doc gap fixed today; 3 minor observations items open (untested pace-formula dup, lock-ordering) | none | 2026-07-12 |
| localsky_radar *(no card yet)* | build | review-required | `git init` + first commit (2,227 lines, zero version control); rewrite CLAUDE.md (wrongly claims unimplemented) | confirm git-init | 2026-07-12 |

## Decision queue

Questions for James, appended by Nano; answered items move to the card's Notes and are removed here.

- **nanoclaw metric:** Proposed metric = "decisions James answers per week from daily brief" (proxy for brief usefulness). Confirm or rename? (Card currently undefined.)
- **RoadSense launch questions (5):** auth model, generalization city, GIS license, creator posture, 30-day success metric. Sent via Telegram 2026-07-08.
- **congressional-trading dual-poller (2026-07-12):** `com.congresswatch.daily` launchd job confirmed loaded on *both* the Mac Mini and this Studio simultaneously — doubles LLM spend and races notification cooldowns. Project's own `agentic_plan.md` already flags this as unresolved. Which machine is authoritative?
- **qip-ask-qien SEV-1 merge (2026-07-19):** fix committed (ee84254) — admin route guards changed from `requireExpertApiUser` → `requireAdminApiUser` on 4 routes. TypeScript + lint clean. Ready to merge; needs James's sign-off to push.
- **nanoclaw push() fix design (2026-07-19):** REST pending queue design sent to James (#infrastructure). 3 questions: (1) follow-up-turn UX acceptable? (2) Claude rung also drain restPendingQueue as safety net? (3) green-light tests alongside fix?

## Recently shipped

- **Portfolio audit** 2026-07-12 — parallel survey across 20 projects; auto-fixed 10 AGENTS.md/CLAUDE.md symmetry gaps, an mDNS doc gap (CodexBar-ESP32), a stale phase claim (MentorCore), a wrong-hostname ntfy-link bug (pool-monitor, verified via 76 passing tests), a test-isolation gap (AgenticLever, verified via 32 passing tests), and this file's own Tailscale hostname drift.
- **nanoclaw** 2026-07-08 — fix(router): mention-sticky Slack session scoping committed


Let me look at the eligible projects:
- StageHand (P1): Blocked on James answers (voice, agent, posting, pricing, Local Recs y/n) - NOT actionable
- nanoclaw (P1): Blocked on 3 push()-fix design questions - NOT actionable
- AgenticLever (P2): "Confirm goal" - this says blocked on "confirm card" - NOT clearly actionable
- RoadSense (P2): Blocked on 5 launch questions - NOT actionable
- qip-qien (P2): SEV-1 fix committed, awaiting merge approval - NOT actionable (awaiting James)
- AgenticLever is marked as "autonomous-ok" with "Confirm goal" as the next action, but it's still blocked on James for the card confirmation, so there's nothing concrete I can move forward on there either.

All the P1s and P2s are effectively stalled waiting on James or external dependencies. According to the autopilot instructions, when everything's blocked like this, I should log what's stalled and send a note to slack-infrastructure about the blockers.


1	# AgenticLever
2
3	- Repo: `~/projects/AgenticLever` · https://github.com/jamesjlopez/AgenticLever-website
4	- Goal: _to confirm — solution-selling site with question-led discovery flow?_
5	- Stage: build (seeded — confirm)
6	- Guard: autonomous-ok
7	- Metric: _undefined — James to name (candidates: interest sign-ups/week, discovery-flow completion rate)_
8	- Blocked on James: confirm this card
9	- Next action: confirm goal
10
11	## Notes
12	- 2026-07-06 — Seeded from git activity: "feat: add NTFY_CLICK_URL support" (2026-06-29). Working tree has uncommitted changes.
13

# AgenticLever

- Repo: `~/projects/AgenticLever` · https://github.com/jamesjlopez/AgenticLever-website
- Goal: _to confirm — solution-selling site with question-led discovery flow?_
- Stage: build (seeded — confirm)
- Guard: autonomous-ok
- Metric: _undefined — James to name (candidates: interest sign-ups/week, discovery-flow completion rate)_
- Blocked on James: confirm this card
- Next action: confirm goal

## Notes
- 2026-07-06 — Seeded from git activity: "feat: add NTFY_CLICK_URL support" (2026-06-29). Working tree has uncommitted changes.


AgenticLever is blocked on "confirm this card" - no actionable work.

Let me check if there's an observation or anything I could contribute to AgenticLever without needing James to confirm first. Since the "autonomous-ok" guard means I can proceed, but the "Next action" is "confirm goal" which is essentially blocked on James...

Actually, let me re-read the autopilot instructions: "Skip anything where Next action is 'confirm with James' or blocked on external input."

The Next action for AgenticLever IS effectively "confirm with James". So skip it.
Looking at all the projects, they're all waiting on James for something—toolchain answers, design questions, goal confirmation, or merge approval. Congressional-trading isn't even available this cycle since it wrapped up. So there's genuinely nothing I can move forward on right now.

The instructions are explicit though: if no eligible project has a clear next step, I need to log it and notify slack-infrastructure about what's blocking everything. Let me also double-check RoadSense to see if there's any detail I'm missing, and qip-qien looks like it might just need review sign-off from James rather than new work. The merge is James's responsibility. For nanoclaw, the push() fix design is blocked waiting for his feedback, but it's marked as P1 autonomous-ok so I should check if there's other independent work I could tackle—though diving into the repo for issues might be beyond what the board actually calls for.

All the eligible projects seem to hit the same wall with James, so I should probably log this as a skip given the medium tier priority. That said, I could do some exploratory work on AgenticLever—reading through the repo and forming a preliminary goal hypothesis wouldn't require James's confirmation first, just generate something for him to review later. But the card's been sitting since early July without confirmation, which might signal something about priority or readiness.

Let me check if the RoadSense card actually got those launch questions answered back in early July—the card might just be stale.


1	# RoadSense
2
3	- Repo: `~/projects/RoadSense`
4	- Goal: Personal motorcycle road discovery engine — algorithmically surfaces roads worth riding using GIS data + ridden-road tracking. Pilot: Cedar Park / Austin area.
5	- Stage: feedback
6	- Guard: autonomous-ok
7	- Metric: _undefined — pilot stage; "does it find good roads I'd actually ride?"_
8	- Blocked on James: answers to 5 launch questions (auth model, generalization city, GIS license, creator posture, success metric)
9	- Next action: Answer launch questions (auth model, generalization city, GIS licensing, creator posture, success metric) → unblock implementation
10
11	## Notes
12	- 2026-07-06 — Seeded from git activity: "Relax area smoke-test routing gate" (2026-06-06).
13	- 2026-07-06 — James clarified: functional personal pilot, tuned to Austin area. Two open threads: (a) test generalization to San Jose CA or Denver NC as candidate expansion areas; (b) small display issue with ridden roads. Bigger decision: go public? If yes, need to scope and plan GTM strategy.
14	- 2026-07-06 — Decision made: go public. Scoping work is next step.
15	- 2026-07-08 — Autopilot (high tier): produced public launch scope + GTM plan. Sent to James via Telegram with 5 numbered questions: (1) auth model, (2) generalization city, (3) GIS licensing, (4) creator posture, (5) 30-day success metric. Display bug fix deferred — needs local repo access.
16

# RoadSense

- Repo: `~/projects/RoadSense`
- Goal: Personal motorcycle road discovery engine — algorithmically surfaces roads worth riding using GIS data + ridden-road tracking. Pilot: Cedar Park / Austin area.
- Stage: feedback
- Guard: autonomous-ok
- Metric: _undefined — pilot stage; "does it find good roads I'd actually ride?"_
- Blocked on James: answers to 5 launch questions (auth model, generalization city, GIS license, creator posture, success metric)
- Next action: Answer launch questions (auth model, generalization city, GIS licensing, creator posture, success metric) → unblock implementation

## Notes
- 2026-07-06 — Seeded from git activity: "Relax area smoke-test routing gate" (2026-06-06).
- 2026-07-06 — James clarified: functional personal pilot, tuned to Austin area. Two open threads: (a) test generalization to San Jose CA or Denver NC as candidate expansion areas; (b) small display issue with ridden roads. Bigger decision: go public? If yes, need to scope and plan GTM strategy.
- 2026-07-06 — Decision made: go public. Scoping work is next step.
- 2026-07-08 — Autopilot (high tier): produced public launch scope + GTM plan. Sent to James via Telegram with 5 numbered questions: (1) auth model, (2) generalization city, (3) GIS licensing, (4) creator posture, (5) 30-day success metric. Display bug fix deferred — needs local repo access.