Log: results/adaptive_logs/run_2026-06-24T211625.log [21:16:25] Adaptive MLP — COINBASE_BTCUSD — 3 TFs [21:16:25] Config: 3 seeds/round, max 10 rounds, convergence=3 rounds, threshold=0.02 [21:16:25] Starting Calmar per TF: [21:16:25] 4H: Calmar=0.2625 next_seed=1909 (bull seeds already trained: 12) [21:16:25] 6H: Calmar=0.3973 next_seed=3124 (bull seeds already trained: 15) [21:16:25] 12H: Calmar=0.9141 next_seed=1912 (bull seeds already trained: 9) [21:16:25] ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ [21:16:25] Round 1/10 — 3 active TFs: 4H, 6H, 12H [21:16:25] ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ [21:16:25] Training: 3 TFs × 3 seeds = 9 jobs [4H=all, 6H=all, 12H=all] [21:17:45] ✅ 12H: 3/3 trained (seed1912, seed2013, seed2114) [80s+80s+80s] [21:17:56] ✅ 6H: 3/3 trained (seed3124, seed3225, seed3326) [91s+90s+91s] [21:18:08] ✅ 4H: 3/3 trained (seed1909, seed2010, seed2111) [103s+102s+95s] [21:18:08] Sweeping: 3 TFs in parallel (5 workers each) ... [21:23:06] ✅ sweep 12H: 298s [21:24:13] ✅ sweep 6H: 365s [21:24:19] ✅ sweep 4H: 370s [21:24:19] Improvement check: [21:24:19] — 4H: 0.2625 → 0.2625 (+0.0000) no_improve=1/3 [phase=all] [21:24:19] — 6H: 0.3973 → 0.3973 (+0.0000) no_improve=1/3 [phase=all] [21:24:19] — 12H: 0.9141 → 0.9141 (+0.0000) no_improve=1/3 [phase=all] [21:24:19] ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ [21:24:19] Round 2/10 — 3 active TFs: 4H, 6H, 12H [21:24:19] ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ [21:24:19] Training: 3 TFs × 3 seeds = 9 jobs [4H=all, 6H=all, 12H=all] [21:25:39] ✅ 12H: 3/3 trained (seed2215, seed2316, seed2417) [79s+79s+79s] [21:25:57] ✅ 6H: 3/3 trained (seed3427, seed3528, seed3629) [89s+98s+88s] [21:26:01] ✅ 4H: 3/3 trained (seed2212, seed2313, seed2414) [93s+93s+101s] [21:26:01] Sweeping: 3 TFs in parallel (5 workers each) ... [21:30:53] ✅ sweep 12H: 292s [21:31:53] ✅ sweep 6H: 352s [21:32:04] ✅ sweep 4H: 363s [21:32:04] Improvement check: [21:32:04] — 4H: 0.2625 → 0.2625 (+0.0000) no_improve=2/3 [phase=all] [21:32:04] — 6H: 0.3973 → 0.3973 (+0.0000) no_improve=2/3 [phase=all] [21:32:04] — 12H: 0.9141 → 0.9141 (+0.0000) no_improve=2/3 [phase=all] [21:32:04] ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ [21:32:04] Round 3/10 — 3 active TFs: 4H, 6H, 12H [21:32:04] ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ [21:32:04] Training: 3 TFs × 3 seeds = 9 jobs [4H=all, 6H=all, 12H=all] [21:33:19] ✅ 12H: 3/3 trained (seed2518, seed2619, seed2720) [74s+75s+75s] [21:33:36] ✅ 6H: 3/3 trained (seed3730, seed3831, seed3932) [92s+85s+85s] [21:33:43] ✅ 4H: 3/3 trained (seed2515, seed2616, seed2717) [98s+98s+99s] [21:33:43] Sweeping: 3 TFs in parallel (5 workers each) ... [21:38:59] ✅ sweep 12H: 315s [21:39:58] ✅ sweep 6H: 375s [21:40:08] ✅ sweep 4H: 384s [21:40:08] Improvement check: [21:40:08] ⚠️ 4H: 0.2625 → 0.2625 (+0.0000) no_improve=3/3 [phase=all] [21:40:08] 🔄 4H: plateau in all-regime → switching to bull (existing bull seeds: 12, next: seed1313) [21:40:08] ⚠️ 6H: 0.3973 → 0.3973 (+0.0000) no_improve=3/3 [phase=all] [21:40:08] 🔄 6H: plateau in all-regime → switching to bull (existing bull seeds: 15, next: seed1616) [21:40:08] ⚠️ 12H: 0.9141 → 0.9141 (+0.0000) no_improve=3/3 [phase=all] [21:40:08] 🔄 12H: plateau in all-regime → switching to bull (existing bull seeds: 9, next: seed1010) [21:40:08] ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ [21:40:08] Round 4/10 — 3 active TFs: 4H, 6H, 12H [21:40:08] ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ [21:40:08] Training: 3 TFs × 3 seeds = 9 jobs [4H=bull, 6H=bull, 12H=bull] [21:41:27] ✅ 12H: 3/3 trained (seed1010, seed1111, seed1212) [78s+78s+78s] [21:41:42] ✅ 4H: 3/3 trained (seed1313, seed1414, seed1515) [93s+93s+94s] [21:41:43] ✅ 6H: 3/3 trained (seed1616, seed1717, seed1818) [89s+95s+88s] [21:41:43] Sweeping: 3 TFs in parallel (5 workers each) ... [21:46:50] ✅ sweep 12H: 306s [21:47:50] ✅ sweep 6H: 366s [21:48:03] ✅ sweep 4H: 379s [21:48:03] Improvement check: [21:48:03] — 4H: 0.2625 → 0.2625 (+0.0000) no_improve=1/3 [phase=bull] [21:48:03] — 6H: 0.3973 → 0.3973 (+0.0000) no_improve=1/3 [phase=bull] [21:48:03] — 12H: 0.9141 → 0.9141 (+0.0000) no_improve=1/3 [phase=bull] [21:48:03] ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ [21:48:03] Round 5/10 — 3 active TFs: 4H, 6H, 12H [21:48:03] ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ [21:48:03] Training: 3 TFs × 3 seeds = 9 jobs [4H=bull, 6H=bull, 12H=bull] [21:49:20] ✅ 12H: 3/3 trained (seed1313, seed1414, seed1515) [77s+77s+77s] [21:49:30] ✅ 6H: 3/3 trained (seed1919, seed2020, seed2121) [87s+87s+87s] [21:49:43] ✅ 4H: 3/3 trained (seed1616, seed1717, seed1818) [92s+92s+100s] [21:49:43] Sweeping: 3 TFs in parallel (5 workers each) ... [21:54:55] ✅ sweep 12H: 311s [21:55:50] ✅ sweep 6H: 367s [21:56:05] ✅ sweep 4H: 381s [21:56:05] Improvement check: [21:56:05] — 4H: 0.2625 → 0.2625 (+0.0000) no_improve=2/3 [phase=bull] [21:56:05] — 6H: 0.3973 → 0.3973 (+0.0000) no_improve=2/3 [phase=bull] [21:56:05] — 12H: 0.9141 → 0.9141 (+0.0000) no_improve=2/3 [phase=bull] [21:56:05] ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ [21:56:05] Round 6/10 — 3 active TFs: 4H, 6H, 12H [21:56:05] ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ [21:56:05] Training: 3 TFs × 3 seeds = 9 jobs [4H=bull, 6H=bull, 12H=bull] [21:57:21] ✅ 12H: 3/3 trained (seed1616, seed1717, seed1818) [76s+76s+76s] [21:57:32] ✅ 6H: 3/3 trained (seed2222, seed2323, seed2424) [87s+86s+87s] [21:57:37] ✅ 4H: 3/3 trained (seed1919, seed2020, seed2121) [91s+91s+91s] [21:57:37] Sweeping: 3 TFs in parallel (5 workers each) ... [22:02:49] ✅ sweep 12H: 312s [22:03:43] ✅ sweep 6H: 366s [22:03:59] ✅ sweep 4H: 381s [22:03:59] Improvement check: [22:03:59] ⚠️ 4H: 0.2625 → 0.2625 (+0.0000) no_improve=3/3 [phase=bull] [22:03:59] 🚫 4H: RETIRED (converged in all + bull phases) [22:03:59] ⚠️ 6H: 0.3973 → 0.3973 (+0.0000) no_improve=3/3 [phase=bull] [22:03:59] 🚫 6H: RETIRED (converged in all + bull phases) [22:03:59] ✅ 12H: 0.9141 → 1.0084 (+0.0944) [phase=bull] [22:03:59] ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ [22:03:59] Round 7/10 — 1 active TFs: 12H [22:03:59] ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ [22:03:59] Training: 1 TFs × 3 seeds = 3 jobs [12H=bull] [22:04:52] ✅ 12H: 3/3 trained (seed1919, seed2020, seed2121) [53s+52s+52s] [22:04:52] Sweeping: 1 TFs in parallel (16 workers each) ... [22:06:39] ✅ sweep 12H: 107s [22:06:39] Improvement check: [22:06:39] — 12H: 1.0084 → 1.0084 (+0.0000) no_improve=1/3 [phase=bull] [22:06:39] ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ [22:06:39] Round 8/10 — 1 active TFs: 12H [22:06:39] ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ [22:06:39] Training: 1 TFs × 3 seeds = 3 jobs [12H=bull] [22:07:32] ✅ 12H: 3/3 trained (seed2222, seed2323, seed2424) [52s+52s+52s] [22:07:32] Sweeping: 1 TFs in parallel (16 workers each) ... [22:09:20] ✅ sweep 12H: 108s [22:09:20] Improvement check: [22:09:20] — 12H: 1.0084 → 1.0084 (+0.0000) no_improve=2/3 [phase=bull] [22:09:20] ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ [22:09:20] Round 9/10 — 1 active TFs: 12H [22:09:20] ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ [22:09:20] Training: 1 TFs × 3 seeds = 3 jobs [12H=bull] [22:10:17] ✅ 12H: 3/3 trained (seed2525, seed2626, seed2727) [52s+57s+52s] [22:10:17] Sweeping: 1 TFs in parallel (16 workers each) ... [22:12:09] ✅ sweep 12H: 111s [22:12:09] Improvement check: [22:12:09] ⚠️ 12H: 1.0084 → 1.0084 (+0.0000) no_improve=3/3 [phase=bull] [22:12:09] 🚫 12H: RETIRED (converged in all + bull phases) [22:12:09] All TFs retired — stopping. [22:12:09] ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ [22:12:09] ADAPTIVE LOOP COMPLETE — 9 rounds in 55m43s [22:12:09] ════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ Calmar improvement summary: ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── TF Calmar Before Calmar After Delta Phase Won Rounds ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 4H 0.2625 0.2625 +0.0000 — 6 6H 0.3973 0.3973 +0.0000 — 6 ✅ 12H 0.9141 1.0084 +0.0944 bull 9 ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── [22:12:09] Running mlp_results_table... TF PnL % Max DD % Win Rate PnL % (thru 2026-06-24) OOS PnL % (2026-03-01+) ----- ------------ ---------- ------------------ ---------------------- -------------------------- 4H +9,557.3% -28.8% 46% (30/65) +8,285.9% -13.2% (2 trades) 6H +7,478.1% -35.9% 54% (57/106) +7,284.6% -2.6% (6 trades) 8H +11,353.5% -32.6% 65% (64/99) +11,317.0% +0.0% (0 trades) 12H +3,643.2% -21.5% 62% (40/65) +3,643.2% +0.0% (0 trades) 1D +23,148.2% -36.0% 64% (47/74) +23,962.7% +3.5% (1 trades) [22:12:10] ntfy sent