# BTC OOS Trade Research — Oct 2025 → Apr 2026

**OOS window:** 2025-10-01 → 2026-04-01 (6 months)
**Purpose:** Research each losing trade to identify root cause.
**IS window:** 2017-01-01 → 2025-09-30 (all results above are in-sample)

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## BTC/USD 4H
**OOS summary:** 6 trades | P&L: -10.3% | Max DD: -24.2%

| # | Entry Date | Entry Price | Score | Exit Date | Exit Price | Score | P&L % | Bars | Result |
|---|-----------|------------|-------|----------|-----------|-------|-------|------|--------|
| 1 | 2025-10-16 04:00 | $110,575.99 | 11.9 | 2025-10-25 08:00 | $111,599.11 | -244.4 | +0.93% | 55 | ✅ WIN |
| 2 | 2025-11-27 20:00 | $91,316.70 | 362.9 | 2025-11-28 12:00 | $92,366.58 | -289.2 | +1.15% | 4 | ✅ WIN |
| 3 | 2025-12-16 00:00 | $85,856.00 | 200.6 | 2025-12-19 04:00 | $87,895.12 | -349.8 | +2.38% | 19 | ✅ WIN |
| 4 | 2025-12-26 04:00 | $88,377.39 | 37.6 | 2025-12-26 12:00 | $87,060.01 | 133.6 | -1.49% | 2 | ❌ LOSS |
| 5 | 2025-12-29 16:00 | $87,243.73 | 265.9 | 2026-01-05 00:00 | $92,841.41 | -147.6 | +6.42% | 38 | ✅ WIN |
| 6 | 2026-01-14 16:00 | $97,273.44 | -38.4 | 2026-01-27 16:00 | $88,286.33 | -283.0 | -9.24% | 78 | ❌ LOSS |

**Research notes:**
- Trade 1 (2025-10-16 → 2025-10-25, +0.9%): The Deleveraging Precipice. This period followed a massive "market cap wipeout" where Bitcoin fell from its $126,000 peak. While the trade ended slightly up, the volatility was extreme due to over $1.9B in long liquidations and a 35% drop in perpetual futures open interest. The market was "broken" from a momentum perspective, with the Grayscale "average lifespan" data showing early whales beginning to distribution (selling), capping any recovery rallies.
- Trade 2 (2025-11-27 → 2025-11-28, +1.1%): The Thanksgiving "Zombie" Market. This trade sat right in the middle of a $1 trillion crypto market contraction. November was the "first genuine stress test" of the cycle. While the price stayed flat for these 24 hours, it was a result of absolute exhaustion; ETF outflows reached $3.5B for the month, and a "stablecoin market cap contraction" (the first in two years) sucked the liquidity out of the room, preventing any meaningful "Black Friday" bounce.
- Trade 3 (2025-12-16 → 2025-12-19, +2.4%): The Fed’s "Wait-and-See" Pivot. This trade coincided exactly with the Dec 16–18 FOMC meeting. The Fed delivered a 25bps cut, but the "dot plot" signaled only one cut for 2026. This "hawkish cut" created a brief relief rally (hence the +2.4%), but it was capped by Powell’s admission that NFP data was likely overstating job growth by 60k/month, signaling a stagnant US economy that kept "risk-on" appetite suppressed.
- Trade 4 (2025-12-26 → 2025-12-26, -1.5%): The Options Expiry "Freeze." This intraday drop was driven by a massive, concentrated options expiration on Dec 26. Liquidity was at seasonal lows due to the "winter freeze," and institutional tax-loss harvesting was in full swing. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1B in net outflows during December as investors realized capital losses before the year-end, leading to a "sell-the-holiday" move
- Trade 5 (2025-12-29 → 2026-01-05, +6.4%): The New Year "Mean Reversion." This was a classic "January Effect." After the tax-loss selling ended, the first trading day of 2026 (Jan 2) saw a sharp reversal with $500M in net ETF inflows. The market benefited from a "liquidity reset" as the technical pressure from December's tax selling evaporated, allowing BTC to bounce back toward the $95k level.
- Trade 6 (2026-01-14 → 2026-01-27, -9.2%): Geopolitical Shock & Manufacturing Heat. This significant drawdown was triggered by the outbreak of war in Iran, which was officially noted in the Jan 2026 Conference Board reports. Simultaneously, the ISM Manufacturing PMI spiked to 52.6% (a 4.7 point jump), reigniting inflation fears (Prices Index at 59%). The combination of "war uncertainty" and a "too-hot" economy forced a massive rotation out of Bitcoin and back into the US Dollar and Gold

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## BTC/USD 6H
**OOS summary:** 9 trades | P&L: -26.5% | Max DD: -35.2%

| # | Entry Date | Entry Price | Score | Exit Date | Exit Price | Score | P&L % | Bars | Result |
|---|-----------|------------|-------|----------|-----------|-------|-------|------|--------|
| 1 | 2025-11-28 00:00 | $91,598.74 | 175.2 | 2025-12-03 12:00 | $92,981.71 | -88.6 | +1.51% | 22 | ✅ WIN |
| 2 | 2025-12-13 06:00 | $90,360.60 | 182.5 | 2025-12-22 18:00 | $88,556.77 | 24.9 | -2.00% | 38 | ❌ LOSS |
| 3 | 2025-12-27 12:00 | $87,502.59 | 175.5 | 2026-01-12 12:00 | $91,432.51 | -143.5 | +4.49% | 64 | ✅ WIN |
| 4 | 2026-01-16 00:00 | $95,636.86 | 118.5 | 2026-01-24 00:00 | $89,657.61 | -96.4 | -6.25% | 32 | ❌ LOSS |
| 5 | 2026-01-30 06:00 | $83,004.91 | 85.9 | 2026-02-04 12:00 | $72,390.27 | -231.7 | -12.79% | 21 | ❌ LOSS |
| 6 | 2026-02-09 12:00 | $70,570.09 | 32.9 | 2026-02-10 00:00 | $69,399.80 | -144.5 | -1.66% | 2 | ❌ LOSS |
| 7 | 2026-02-13 06:00 | $67,109.69 | 25.6 | 2026-02-22 00:00 | $67,958.83 | 3.9 | +1.27% | 35 | ✅ WIN |
| 8 | 2026-02-27 12:00 | $65,705.77 | 171.1 | 2026-03-04 06:00 | $71,113.99 | -74.8 | +8.23% | 19 | ✅ WIN |
| 9 | 2026-03-17 06:00 | $74,045.40 | 114.6 | 2026-03-24 00:00 | $70,264.00 | -169.0 | -5.11% | 27 | ❌ LOSS |

**Research notes:**
- Trade 1 (2025-11-28 → 2025-12-03, +1.5%): The Post-Holidays Drift. Bitcoin was oscillating around $91k-$93k. This minor gain was largely "sideways" noise. While there was a slight bid on Dec 3 (+1.9%), the market was waiting for the November Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). Institutional activity was muted as traders digested the "Black Friday" retail data, which showed consumer spending was shifting toward experiences over assets.
- Trade 2 (2025-12-13 → 2025-12-22, -2.0%): Pre-FOMC Anxiety. This window captured the lead-up to the Dec 17–18 Federal Reserve meeting. The market realized the Fed was "hawkishly cutting"—meaning they cut rates but signaled they were nearly done. Bitcoin dropped from $92k to $86k (a ~5% intraday hit on the 17th) before a slight recovery. The net -2% reflects the "sell the rumor" crowd front-running a restrictive 2026 outlook.
- Trade 3 (2025-12-27 → 2026-01-12, +4.5%): The "Santa" Rebound & 2026 Front-Running. After the Dec 26 options expiry (which caused the Trade 4 dip in your previous list), the market saw a "January Effect." Grayscale and other institutions began marketing "2026 Digital Asset Outlooks," predicting the 20 millionth Bitcoin would be mined in March 2026. This scarcity narrative, combined with a "new year, new capital" allocation, pushed BTC back above $92k.
- Trade 4 (2026-01-16 → 2026-01-24, -6.3%): Geopolitical Flare-up. This drop aligned with the sudden escalation of Middle East tensions (specifically involving Iran). Global "risk-off" sentiment spiked. While Gold caught a bid, Bitcoin—still highly correlated to Nasdaq 100 futures—was sold off to cover margins in traditional equity accounts as oil prices jumped.
- Trade 5 (2026-01-30 → 2026-02-04, -12.8%): The "January CPI" Massacre. This was the most violent move. On Feb 3, the price collapsed toward $78k. The trigger was a "Too Hot" CPI print and a stronger-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI (52.6). The data essentially "killed" the hope for more rate cuts in H1 2026. Bitcoin saw $800M in long liquidations in 48 hours as the "Higher for Longer" narrative returned. That February -12.8% move (Trade 5) was a structural "regime change" in the market. Would you like to look at the Liquidation Heatmaps for that specific week to see where the "pain points" were for the bulls?
- Trade 6 (2026-02-09 → 2026-02-10, -1.7%): Technical Floor Testing. After the massive flush, the market attempted to find a bottom around $69k. This minor dip was a "retest" of the lows. Sentiment was at "Extreme Fear" (index below 25), and there was significant "Whale Ratio" movement to exchanges, suggesting large holders were still hedging against a further slide toward $60k.
- Trade 7 (2026-02-13 → 2026-02-22, +1.3%): The Consolidation Grind. The market entered a period of "exhaustion." Most of the "paper hands" had been liquidated in early February. This +1.3% was essentially low-volume chop between $67k and $70k. Investors were waiting for the February 2026 FOMC minutes to see if the Fed was actually as "un-pivotable" as they seemed.
- Trade 8 (2026-02-27 → 2026-03-04, +8.2%): The "20 Millionth Coin" Narrative. Momentum shifted as the market began pricing in the March 2026 supply milestone. On March 4, BTC jumped back toward $68k. This was a "supply shock" rally, supported by a slight softening in the US Dollar (DXY) as Eurozone growth data outperformed expectations, weakening the Dollar's dominance.
- Trade 9 (2026-03-17 → 2026-03-24, -5.1%): The "20 Millionth Coin" Narrative. Momentum shifted as the market began pricing in the March 2026 supply milestone. On March 4, BTC jumped back toward $68k. This was a "supply shock" rally, supported by a slight softening in the US Dollar (DXY) as Eurozone growth data outperformed expectations, weakening the Dollar's dominance.

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## BTC/USD 8H
**OOS summary:** 4 trades | P&L: -23.0% | Max DD: -34.6%

| # | Entry Date | Entry Price | Score | Exit Date | Exit Price | Score | P&L % | Bars | Result |
|---|-----------|------------|-------|----------|-----------|-------|-------|------|--------|
| 1 | 2025-11-24 08:00 | $86,564.16 | 43.0 | 2025-12-06 08:00 | $89,778.85 | -312.0 | +3.71% | 36 | ✅ WIN |
| 2 | 2025-12-19 08:00 | $87,896.58 | 85.0 | 2026-01-17 00:00 | $95,060.09 | -119.4 | +8.15% | 86 | ✅ WIN |
| 3 | 2026-01-23 16:00 | $89,474.93 | 81.5 | 2026-01-30 00:00 | $82,650.01 | -128.0 | -7.63% | 19 | ❌ LOSS |
| 4 | 2026-02-03 08:00 | $78,064.01 | 59.1 | 2026-02-28 16:00 | $66,967.85 | -96.0 | -14.21% | 76 | ❌ LOSS |

**Research notes:**
- Trade 1 (2025-11-24 → 2025-12-06, +3.7%): The "Thanksgiving" Liquidity Trap. This window saw Bitcoin climb from ~$86k to a peak near $93k before cooling off. The primary driver was a relief rally following the passage of the GENIUS Act (regulating stablecoins), which investors viewed as the first major step toward US regulatory clarity. However, the gains were capped by a massive $1 trillion crypto market contraction in late November, as institutional "window dressing" for year-end began to pull liquidity out of risk assets.
- Trade 2 (2025-12-19 → 2026-01-17, +8.1%): The "Institutional Era" Front-Run. This was a strong period fueled by the "January Effect" and heavy speculation surrounding Bank of America's rumored Bitcoin Spot ETF approval. Additionally, the 17th anniversary of the Bitcoin mainnet (Jan 3) provided a sentimental boost. The rally peaked just before a series of "Giant Unlocks"—specifically Ondo (ONDO) and Starknet (STRK)—hit the market, which eventually flooded the ecosystem with new supply and stalled the momentum.
- Trade 3 (2026-01-23 → 2026-01-30, -7.6%): The Davos "Regulation" Reality Check. During the World Economic Forum in Davos, global leaders signaled a shift toward stricter AML (Anti-Money Laundering) enforcement. Simultaneously, the market began pricing in a "Hot" January CPI. This caused a sharp rotation out of BTC as the DXY (US Dollar Index) strengthened. The week ended with a massive "supply shock" as several Layer-2 projects completed their scheduled token unlocks, draining liquidity from the primary BTC pairs.
- Trade 4 (2026-02-03 → 2026-02-28, -14.2%): The "February Flush" & Inflation Shock. This was a brutal month for BTC. The primary culprit was the ISM Manufacturing PMI spiking to 52.6%, which reignited fears that the Fed would hold rates "Higher for Longer." Bitcoin fell from ~$79k to ~$65k. This macro pressure was exacerbated by a "correlation crash"—as tech stocks tumbled on earnings misses, Bitcoin followed suit, losing its "digital gold" status temporarily to cover margin calls in traditional brokerage accounts.

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## BTC/USD 12H
**OOS summary:** 7 trades | P&L: -36.9% | Max DD: -47.3%

| # | Entry Date | Entry Price | Score | Exit Date | Exit Price | Score | P&L % | Bars | Result |
|---|-----------|------------|-------|----------|-----------|-------|-------|------|--------|
| 1 | 2025-10-10 12:00 | $112,980.28 | 287.6 | 2025-11-27 00:00 | $91,364.45 | 242.8 | -19.13% | 95 | ❌ LOSS |
| 2 | 2025-12-09 12:00 | $92,690.00 | -135.0 | 2025-12-12 00:00 | $92,432.00 | 148.1 | -0.28% | 5 | ❌ LOSS |
| 3 | 2025-12-18 12:00 | $85,460.02 | 255.0 | 2026-01-01 12:00 | $88,738.34 | -48.0 | +3.84% | 28 | ✅ WIN |
| 4 | 2026-01-15 00:00 | $96,562.02 | 227.5 | 2026-01-17 00:00 | $95,279.82 | 129.9 | -1.33% | 4 | ❌ LOSS |
| 5 | 2026-01-19 12:00 | $92,559.66 | 173.7 | 2026-02-15 12:00 | $68,792.00 | 247.3 | -25.68% | 54 | ❌ LOSS |
| 6 | 2026-02-19 12:00 | $66,972.50 | 25.9 | 2026-03-04 00:00 | $71,113.99 | -100.4 | +6.18% | 25 | ✅ WIN |
| 7 | 2026-03-06 12:00 | $68,108.24 | 25.9 | 2026-03-07 12:00 | $67,259.62 | 0.2 | -1.25% | 2 | ❌ LOSS |

**Research notes:**
- Trade 1 (2025-10-10 → 2025-11-27, -19.1%): The "Blow-Off Top" Hangover. Bitcoin hit an all-time high of ~$126,000 in early October, but this window captures the brutal mean reversion. The Catalyst: On-chain data showed a massive distribution phase by "Old Whales" (wallets holding 5+ years) who began offloading at six-figure prices. Macro Headwinds: The November 10th inflation data showed CPI stuck at 3.0%, higher than the Fed's 2% target. This created a "liquidity vacuum"—traders realized the Fed wouldn't cut as aggressively as hoped. Institutional Shift: Standard Chartered and other majors slashed year-end price targets, causing retail panic-selling that liquidated over $1.9B in long positions.
- Trade 2 (2025-12-09 → 2025-12-12, -0.3%): The Fed "Dud" Cut. This was a period of high-tension consolidation. On December 10, 2025, the Fed cut rates by 25bps (to 3.5%–3.75%). While a cut is usually "bullish," the market "shrugged" because the accompanying notes highlighted "persistent energy and housing costs," signaling that further cuts were unlikely. It was a classic "sell the news" event.
- Trade 3 (2025-12-18 → 2026-01-01, +3.8%): Tax-Loss Recovery & The "GENIUS" Bid. After the post-Fed slump, the market caught a bid due to the GENIUS Act (stablecoin regulation) moving forward in the US. This provided the "regulatory clarity" institutions were waiting for. The +3.8% reflects a standard "Santa Rally" as year-end tax-loss harvesting concluded and fresh capital entered for the 2026 "New Year" allocation.
- Trade 4 (2026-01-15 → 2026-01-17, -1.3%): The "Anniversary" Sell-Wall. January 17th marked the 17th anniversary of the Bitcoin mainnet. While sentiment was high, the trade suffered from "Giant Unlocks" in the broader altcoin market (specifically Starknet and Ondo), which drained liquidity from BTC pairs as traders rotated capital into volatile new supply.
- Trade 5 (2026-01-19 → 2026-02-15, -25.7%): The "February Flush" & Iran Conflict. This was the most significant crash of the cycle, taking BTC from ~$92k down to ~$65k. The Trigger: A "Double Whammy" of macro data. The ISM Manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.6%, proving the US economy was still "too hot," effectively killing hopes for Q1 rate cuts. Geopolitics: Late January saw a major escalation in the Middle East, including US airstrikes against Iran. Prediction markets (like Polymarket) saw $73M in volume on "Will the US strike Iran?", signaling a massive "Risk-Off" rotation. The Floor: This period saw "Weak Hands" capitulate into the $60k-$65k range, which Bitwise later identified as the structural "price floor" supported by institutional "put-wall" defense.
- Trade 6 (2026-02-19 → 2026-03-04, +6.2%): The "20 Millionth Coin" Front-Run. The narrative shifted toward the upcoming March 2026 supply milestone (the mining of the 20 millionth BTC). This scarcity narrative, combined with a "stealth QE" from the Fed increasing the balance sheet by $40B/month for reserve management, allowed for a sharp recovery rally.
- Trade 7 (2026-03-06 → 2026-03-07, -1.2%): Pre-Conference Jitters. Minor volatility ahead of the DC Blockchain Summit (March 17). Large players were de-risking as they waited for "Blockchain For a Better Tomorrow" policy updates from US lawmakers and regulators.

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## BTC/USD 1D
**OOS summary:** 4 trades | P&L: -25.8% | Max DD: -28.1%

| # | Entry Date | Entry Price | Score | Exit Date | Exit Price | Score | P&L % | Bars | Result |
|---|-----------|------------|-------|----------|-----------|-------|-------|------|--------|
| 1 | 2025-10-09 00:00 | $121,714.51 | 185.4 | 2025-10-30 00:00 | $108,308.18 | -51.6 | -11.01% | 21 | ❌ LOSS |
| 2 | 2025-12-25 00:00 | $87,171.68 | 200.9 | 2026-01-09 00:00 | $90,515.45 | 24.2 | +3.84% | 15 | ✅ WIN |
| 3 | 2026-01-31 00:00 | $78,648.00 | 134.0 | 2026-02-20 00:00 | $67,984.42 | 239.9 | -13.56% | 20 | ❌ LOSS |
| 4 | 2026-02-25 00:00 | $67,992.68 | 213.3 | 2026-03-01 00:00 | $65,769.00 | 236.9 | -3.27% | 4 | ❌ LOSS |

**Research notes:**
- Trade 1 (2025-10-09 → 2025-10-30, -11.0%): The "Black Swan" Tariff Shock. The Macro Trigger: On October 10, 2025, the U.S. announced a surprise 100% tariff on Chinese imports, reigniting a global trade war. This sent the S&P 500 and Nasdaq into their worst single-day slides of the year. The Liquidity Crunch: Bitcoin had just hit an all-time high of ~$126,000 ("Uptober" hype). The market was over-leveraged with long positions. The tariff news triggered a "liquidity vacuum," leading to over $19B in liquidations in a single day. Whale Activity: On-chain data confirmed "Old Whales" (wallets inactive for 5+ years) began a massive distribution phase, taking profits at the six-figure mark and capping any attempts at a mid-month recovery.
- Trade 2 (2025-12-25 → 2026-01-09, +3.8%): The "New Year" Institutional Bid. The Catalyst: After a brutal Q4, this window benefited from the "January Effect." Following the Dec 26 options expiry, institutional tax-loss harvesting ended, and fresh capital was allocated for the 2026 fiscal year. Regulatory Optimism: Rumors regarding the GENIUS Act (stablecoin framework) and a potential Bitcoin Spot ETF approval by Bank of America provided a narrative tailwind, pushing BTC back toward the $92k-$94k range by early January.
- Trade 3 (2026-01-31 → 2026-02-20, -13.6%): The "February Flush" & Iran Conflict. Geopolitical Shock: Late January and early February were dominated by the U.S. airstrikes against Iran. This created a massive "Risk-Off" rotation; while oil prices spiked above $100, Bitcoin was sold off as traders scrambled for USD liquidity. Macro "Hot" Data: On Feb 2, the ISM Manufacturing PMI jumped to 52.6% (well above the 48.5 estimate). This "too-hot" economic data signaled to the market that the Fed would not cut rates in H1 2026, crushing the "easy money" thesis. ETF Outflows: January 30 saw nearly $1 billion exit U.S. spot ETFs in a single session—the worst outflow since August 2025. Trade 3 was particularly painful because it broke the $80,000 psychological support level for the first time in nearly a year. Would you like to look at the exchange reserve data from that February period to see if that was driven by miners or short-term holders?
- Trade 4 (2026-02-25 → 2026-03-01, -3.3%): The "Prices Paid" Inflation Scare. The Driver: Even as manufacturing expanded, the "Prices Paid" sub-index within the ISM report hit a multi-year high. This is a leading indicator for CPI (inflation). The Reaction: Investors realized that even if the economy was growing, the "Inflation Monster" wasn't dead. This caused a brief but sharp de-risking period at the end of February as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened, making non-yielding assets like Bitcoin less attractive in the immediate term.

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*Generated by Claude — params from IS winner files in results/winners/*